Boris Johnson has delivered on Brexit — now it’s time to get all the rest of it done
BORIS JOHNSON is delivering on his central election promise – to Get Brexit Done.
Earlier today, the new House of Commons voted for his deal and the UK will leave on January 31.
But this sums up the remarkable position that this Government is in. It will have done the main thing that it was put in power to do within two months of taking office.
The danger for the Tories is that their new electoral coalition was held together by a desire to Get Brexit Done and fear of Jeremy Corbyn, and both of those issues will soon be resolved.
As the party’s campaign director, Isaac Levido, pointed out to Tory MPs on Wednesday afternoon, Brexit and Corbyn won this election for the Tories and both of them will be gone by the time of the next election, so the Tories have to deliver for their new voters or risk defeat.
No 10 is acutely conscious of this risk. They know they need a new glue for their coalition — and fast.
At Political Cabinet on Tuesday morning, this point was rammed home to ministers by both the PM and Levido.
Levido, a clear-sighted Australian, warned the assembled secretaries of state that the Tories have “not won the domestic policy fight” yet.
TORIES NEED COALITION GLUE
He stressed that this election had been about Getting Brexit Done more than any other issue.
Tory support among Leave voters went from 66 per cent in 2017 to 78 per cent, and that was key to the victory.
Ministers were told that the party’s polling showed the positive things voters associated with the Tories were about sorting Brexit, while the negative things about Labour were to do with Corbyn or Brexit.
Levido was clear that voters were backing the Tories to finish Brexit — not because they had suddenly become Conservatives. Another danger for the Tories is that Labour’s fundamental brand is nowhere near as damaged as many at Westminster think.
With Corbyn gone and Brexit removed as an issue, the party may well be able to bounce back much faster than expected.
Levido pointed out that the Tories’ own polling of 120 marginal seats had seen the gap between the two parties narrow to just four points in the aftermath of the manifestos, as Labour briefly succeeded in turning the conversation away from Brexit.
FIX THE PROBLEMS
(The Tories ended up winning these seats by 15 points as Boris Johnson and the Tory campaign pushed Brexit back to the top of the agenda).
Levido was clear that for this reason the election could not be seen as a categorical rejection of Labour’s policies. The challenge for the Tories is to move fast to deliver change, so that people do not feel tempted to go back to Labour again.
Do this right and, over the next decade, Darlington, West Bromwich and Wrexham will become Tory heartlands. Get it wrong and these places will turn red once again.
Boris told cabinet ministers that voters needed to see and feel change in their local A&E and on their roads and high streets.
He said there needed to be a clear reduction in homelessness and voters must know that they and their family have a better chance of owning a home. This election made the Tories a national party again.
Now they must show these new voters that their cares are Conservative concerns — and that the party knows how to fix the problems. They must deliver for the whole nation.
Tory move to cement Northern gains
WHERE is the geographical centre of the new Tory party? Well, before the election it was Buckinghamshire.
Now it is South Yorkshire, where the Tories hold three seats – Rother Valley, Don Valley and Penistone And Stocksbridge.
James Cleverly, the ebullient Tory chairman, has relished telling colleagues this fact. I understand that to reflect this new reality, the Tories are planning to move a large chunk of their party headquarters up north.
The thinking is that by getting a chunk of the party operation out of London and into the North, it will make the party less London-centric and more attuned to the concerns of the rest of the country.
B-world will be banished for 2020
BORIS JOHNSON is determined that next year must not be as dominated by Brexit as this year has been. He told Cabinet this week that once the UK leaves the EU on January 31, they should stop talking about Brexit.
The PM argued that while the EU would try to create new cliff edges and fresh moments of drama, the Government should resist being drawn into this dynamic.
He argued that ministers should instead approach it as a normal trade negotiation rather than as some epoch-defining event.
I am told that as part of the Government’s effort to de-dramatise things, they intend to resist going to Brussels for every negotiation – something which only adds to the tension and drama.
I understand they want negotiations on both sides of the Channel rather than the UK always looking like a supplicant in heading to Europe to be told what it can and cannot have.
As part of the effort to lower the profile of these trade talks, I am informed that David Frost – Boris’s understated but effective EU sherpa – will carry on conducting the negotiations.
Frost, who is trusted totally by the PM and his inner circle, secured the changes to the withdrawal agreement that made it acceptable to Tory MPs. Having Frost conduct the negotiations rather than a cabinet minister will make them less likely to dominate the news.
But there is no getting away from the importance of these talks to the UK. The deal will be the first trade deal the nation has done in 40-odd years and will be hugely important in determining the future economic direction of this country.
Non-intimidating Labour
THE Labour leadership field is currently not a particularly intimidating sight for the Tories.
Rebecca Long-Bailey is not regarded as having the demonstrable competence that voters are yearning for from Labour.
The Tories calculate that, for his part, Sir Keir Starmer, the strongest Shadow Cabinet advocate of a second referendum, would deepen Labour’s problem in Leave-voting seats.
The only candidate currently causing some concern is Jess Phillips – regarded as the high-risk, high-reward option for Labour.
But given her low standing with the Corbyn-backing membership, she is not currently looking like a top- tier candidate.
Reshuffle kerfuffle
WHEN two or three ministers are gathered together, they start to nervously whisper about the February reshuffle.
It is expected that this reshuffle will be big and coincide with the changes to Whitehall that Boris Johnson is keen to introduce. He wants to create some new departments, merge others and even shutter some.
Boris’s old allies, though, are warning against a shake-up that sees too many of them replaced.
One confidant of this group tells me Boris’s new support base in the party is “a mile wide and an inch deep” and that he needs to keep close those who have been loyal to him through thick and thin.
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One person who is certain to be rewarded in the reshuffle is Brandon Lewis, the Security Minister.
Johnson’s team were impressed by his work during the campaign and want to use him more in the media.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.
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