UK coronavirus crisis may last a YEAR and leave 7.9million patients in hospital, leaked health report warns
THE UK coronavirus crisis could last a year and leave 7.9 million patients in hospital, a leaked health report warned.
The document says the crisis could go on until spring 2021 and will cause huge strain on the NHS as the country's death toll rose from 21 to 35 overnight.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
Meanwhile the number of cases in the UK rose from 1,140 to 1,391.
The documents, shared with senior health officials, say the NHS will struggle to cope with the huge number of patients displaying symptoms that will need to be tested.
The briefing, seen by , was recently drawn up by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, the lead official responsible for dealing with the outbreak.
Testing will only be available to those who are already seriously ill and hospitalised, as well as those in care homes and prisons where the virus has been detected.
This is because labs are "under significant demand pressures", the leaked briefing said.
Even NHS staff won't be given a swab test, despite the risk of them passing the virus onto patients, as testing services come under huge strain.
The news comes as:
- The UK death toll has risen from 21 to 35 overnight and there are now 1,391 COVID-19 cases
- Health Secretary Matt Hancock said elderly people would be told to stay inside for up to four months in the coming weeks
- Spain and Italy are on a 15-day lockdown with flights cancelled and tourists told to 'stay indoors'
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson has asked Rolls Royce and JCB to build thousands of ventilators
- The Queen has quit Buckingham Palace because of virus fears and has been whisked off to Windsor castle
- Families will be told to self-isolate together if just ONE shows symptoms
A senior NHS figure told the Guardian that should 80 per cent of people become infected, more than half a million people could die if the mortality rate turns out to be one per cent.
But if the government's chief scientific advisor Professor Chris Whitty is correct that the rate will be around 0.6%, this would still lead to around 318,660 deaths.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told The Guardian : "For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that.
Tap to see where COVID-19 is near you (updated 15/03)
What Did The Leaked Report Say?
- The coronavirus crisis could last up until Spring 2021.
- Testing might only be available to those who are seriously ill and hospitalised, as well as those in care homes and prisons where the virus has been detected, due to "significant demand pressures" on laboratories.
- Even NHS staff won't be given a swab test as testing services come under huge strain.
- An estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people considered vital because they work ‘in essential services’ could be off work unwell at any given time during the peak of the epidemic.
- If Professor Chris Whitty is correct that the mortality rate will be around 0.6%, this would still lead to around 318,660 deaths if 80 per cent become infected.
'HALF A MILLION COULD DIE'
"A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood.
"I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up."
According to the document, an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people considered vital because they work "in essential services" could be off work unwell at any given time during the peak of the epidemic, which the briefing expects to last until Spring 2021.
This comes as the wife of Britain's youngest coronavirus victim yesterday told of her agony after he died from the bug aged 59.
YOUNGEST VICTIM
Heartbroken Mary Matthews described husband Nick as her "soulmate".
Retired police officer Nick, who has underlying health issues, contracted the bug after going on holiday to Spain to celebrate his birthday.
Nick fell ill with Covid-19 symptoms soon after his return and lost his battle for life early on Saturday.
Devastated Mary, 55, wrote on Facebook: "Today at 3am I lost my life partner and soul mate, but most of all my best friend.
MOST READ IN NEWS
"Charlotte, Ben and I are beyond proud to have had such a big character in our lives.
"As a family, we are still currently in isolation until the coronavirus test results come back.
"I know some of you would like to visit, but please for you and your family's safety, stay away until we get the all clear.”
