Coronavirus may ease in late spring as other similar infections suppressed by warm temperatures, study suggests
THE coronavirus outbreak may ease in late spring like other similar infections which are suppressed by warm temperatures, a new scientific study suggests.
Experts at University College London examined cases of three different coronaviruses which are similar to the one which causes the deadly Covid-19.
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The researchers, who studied data over a five-year period, discovered the number of infections followed a season paternal with numbers rising in the winter.
Cases peaked in February and dropped dramatically from May because heat, humidity and sunlight killed off traces of certain coronaviruses.
Figures showed the number would only rise again in winter but scientists are unsure whether the new study should apply to the coronavirus strand which emerged in Wuhan in December.
Researchers from UCL looked at three coronaviruses - HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E - between 2006 and 2011.
Participants from around the UK took part in the experiment and were asked to report symptoms of illnesses before submitting swabs.
Our findings support the idea that, in the UK, we could see continued but lower levels of coronavirus transmission in the summer.
Dr Robert Aldridge
More than 1,000 swabs were analysed by scientists and they found the rate of coronaviruses was 390 per 100,000 “person-weeks”.
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However, experts fear it is “unlikely” the killer bug will ease off in spring because humid weather and warmer temperatures did not stop it spreading in Asia.
The authors of the study added: “Our study shows that HCoV appears to follow a seasonal pattern in England, with peaks occurring during winter seasons and broadly at the same time as influenza.
“Our results support existing evidence for seasonality of HCoV in England with reduced transmission during summer months.”
UCL’s Ellen Fragaszy, who co-wrote the study, said: “In temperate regions, many respiratory viruses follow a seasonal pattern, with winter peaks during the "cold and flu season".
“We believe this seasonality is driven in part by environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and sunlight which affect both virus survival and how well our immune systems can respond to these infections.
“Seasonality is also likely to be driven by our own behaviours, such as our tendency, when it's cold, to spend more time indoors with the windows shut and in close contact with other people.”