When should Britain lift its coronavirus lockdown? Two experts debate whether it’s time to return to normal
HAVING been in lockdown for almost three weeks now, the question on everyone's lips is when we can go back to our ordinary lives and return to normality.
We asked two experts to debate the issue. One says that restrictions should be lifted sooner rather than later to reboot our ecomony, while the other argues that the restrictions are working, so now is not the right time to lift them.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
'Reboot our economy or it may cost more lives in the long run'
Toby Young, associate editor at Quilette
When Chancellor Rishi Sunak first announced his bail-out plan last month, it was estimated that ten to 20 per cent of workers in the private sector would need Government support.
Now economic forecasters believe it could be a third of the total private sector workforce. That will cost the British taxpayer between £30billion and £40billion every three months.
To date, about a fifth of small businesses have been pushed into bankruptcy. If the lockdown continues to July, that figure will rise to a third.
The effect of this on the economy will be catastrophic. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Britain’s GDP could contract by 25 per cent over the next two years. It shrank by six per cent during the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says the lockdown is costing £2.4billion a day.
'BIGGEST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN'
Given we are now 21 days into the lockdown, this means we are already more than £50billlion out of pocket.
In short, if we don’t ease off on the social distancing measures and re-boot the economy, we’re heading for the biggest economic downturn since the 1930s.
Against this, we are told that if we end the lockdown more people will become infected, demand for critical hospital care will outstrip the NHS’s capacity and we’ll begin to see people dying in even greater numbers.
I’m sceptical about that prognosis.
It is based on the statistical modelling of Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College, but there is mounting evidence that they under-estimated the percentage of the population already infected with coronavirus and over-estimated how deadly this disease is.
'Restrictions are working...now is NOT correct time to lift them'
Jimmy Whitworth, Professor of International Public Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
The UK government’s measures to contain the coronavirus epidemic are just starting to make a difference.
And with the three-week lockdown under review tomorrow, now is NOT the time to lift them.
After a slow and indecisive start, the measures they now have put in place, including recommendations to stay at home, limiting travel, physical distancing, banning large gatherings and shutting shops and pubs, are just starting to show signs that they are slowing the spread of the virus.
This means that there are fewer new cases, with fewer people becoming seriously sick and less demand on hospital beds, intensive care and artificial ventilation.
'IT WILL DIE DOWN'
This means that the pressure on health services is reduced, which, in turn, will lead to fewer deaths from Covid-19 and other causes.
Without the actions that have been taken and just letting the epidemic run its course, we would be likely to see more than half the population infected, and an overwhelmed health system with maybe five million hospital admissions and at least 350,000 deaths.
The measures that have been taken in the UK have been of moderate strength compared to other countries.
In France and Spain, the lockdown has been more severe, while in Sweden it has been less strict.
The coronavirus epidemic can be thought of like a fire.
If we starve a fire of oxygen, then the flames will stop and it will die down.
So it is with the epidemic — reduce transmission from person to person and the number of cases will go down.
But if you let the oxygen come back too early, any embers in the fire will light up again and it will restart.
So, if we relax the lockdown too early, while there is still transmission of the virus going on, then the epidemic will restart.
And that means that we would have wasted the efforts we have made so far.
When transmission has stopped, or is at low enough levels that it can be monitored and each case and their contacts identified, isolated and treated, then the lockdown can be relaxed.
'EVERY LIFE MATTERS'
We have not yet reached the peak of the epidemic, and we do not yet have the infrastructure in place for the systematic testing that will be needed to identify new cases, so now is not the time to relax the lockdown measures.
Some people have talked about the serious damage done to the economy by measures the Government has put in place and the social disruption these have caused, in order to protect the public health of the nation.
They have argued the lockdown will cause more harm than good in the long term. This is a false dilemma.
Every life matters. Each person lost is a family member, a friend, a neighbour, a human being.
They are not a number on a spreadsheet.
This lockdown is the only way for us to get back on our feet.
If left uncontrolled, the coronavirus by itself will cause social and economic disruption as well as damaging public health.
It doesn’t need any help from politicians.
It is up to us all, for the sake of ourselves, our families and our loved ones, to follow the rules, and our solidarity will allow the country to return towards normal as soon as possible.
- GOT a story? RING The Sun on 0207 782 4104 or WHATSAPP on 07423720250 or EMAIL exclusive@the-sun.co.uk