APP FOR THAT
NHS coronavirus tracking app could prevent one case for every two people that download it
A CONTACT tracing app could prevent one coronavirus infection for every one to two users who download it, said an expert advising the Government.
Professor Christophe Fraser, from the Oxford University's Big Data Institute said the app could be released "within weeks" to prevent a resurgence of the Covid-19 outbreak.
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Academics from Oxford University are advising NHSX, the health service's digital innovation unit developing the app, which would alert users if they had come into contact with someone who had coronavirus symptoms.
It uses low energy Bluetooth to log the distance between a person's phone and other phones nearby who have the app installed.
If a person becomes unwell with symptoms, they can choose to use the app to inform the NHS and trigger an anonymous alert to app users with whom they've come into significant contact with.
Professor Fraser said the traditional way of contact tracing is not quick enough because of how rapidly the virus is passed on.
He told the BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show that around 60 per cent of the population would need to download the app for it to become effective.
“We found that when we projected over the next three months, for every one to two users who download the app and who adhere to instructions, you’ll prevent one infection,” he said.
“For this intervention alone to stop resurgence of the epidemic, about 60 per cent of the population would have to use the app.
“Now that number may be a bit smaller if there are other interventions going on, which we hope there will be, social distancing, large community testing, and indeed manual contact tracing.”
According to the Professor around 50 per cent of transmissions occur before a person shows symptoms of the "very rapidly transmitted virus".
It is hoped that the app, which was tested at an RAF base in North Yorkshire this week, would address the issue of transmissions occurring before people show symptoms.
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Prof Fraser added: “The app is solving a specific problem, which is how do you get the message that you’re at risk and empower you to take measures to protect your friends, your family, your colleagues and the people you have been in contact with.”
Experts are aiming to release the NHS app “within weeks”, he told the programme, while a configuration is being developed for healthcare staff who could be exposed to Covid-19 while at work.
Asked if he thought pursuing a contact tracing app earlier could have saved lives, Prof Fraser said: “I think so.
“I worked on the Sars epidemic in 2003 and testing and tracing is really a cornerstone of how you stop a serious infection.
“And I do think that strategy scaled up is tremendously effective.”
He estimated that between 3 per cent and 10 per cent of the population could now have had the disease.
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“There’s uncertainty around this but I would say nationally, somewhere between sort of three and maybe up to 10 per cent of the population would have had coronavirus by this stage,” he said.
“We’re still waiting for the definitive studies based on immunological assays, but this is based on our understanding base of the spread of coronavirus.”
Asked if it could be “several million people, up to six million”, he replied: “That kind of figure – probably a bit less.”
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