Lockdown may stay for months until new cases fall below 1,000 a day as chief medic makes Game of Thrones warning

THE coronavirus lockdown could stay in place for months until the number of new cases falls below 1,000 a day - as the chief medical officer warned: "Winter is coming." 

Professor Chris Whitty made the chilling Games of Thrones reference as the number of new daily cases jumped from 4,706 to 6,032.

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He warned: "It's not just in Game Of Thrones that winter is always coming.

"The winter is always worse than summer, spring and autumn for health services."

Professor Whitty also hinted a second peak could be worse than the first as the UK death toll topped 26,000.

He also said the eradication of coronavirus is "technically impossible".

Prof Whitty warned a video conference hosted by Gresham College: "Covid-19 is a very long way from finished and eradication is technically impossible for this disease."

It comes as ministers want the daily case figure to be in the hundreds before easing any lockdown measures.

According to the , some ministers were concerned after seeing Germany’s infection rate increase after easing its lockdown.

The total number of cases in the UK has topped 171,000 and Britain has not experienced a three-figure case rise since March 23.

However, it is worth noting Britain is carrying out more tests compared to the last time cases were below a thousand, so reaching that target may be difficult.

According to the , one Downing Street source said the Government is reluctant to lift the lockdown until the number of new daily infections was lower than 5,000 - the same number used by Germany.

Meanwhile, a crucial new ‘track and trace’ plan to beat coronavirus is still weeks away after it emerged the current number of cases is far too high.

For track and trace to work, ministers believe the number who currently have the virus will need to be reduced to 100,000 first, The Sun can reveal.

At the moment, the estimated number is still running at 350,000, according to the King’s College London tracker.

Without the track and trace scheme in place, it is likely the Cabinet will decide the full lockdown will have to stay in place beyond the next review point on May 7 in nine days time.

TRACK AND TRACE

Boris Johnson tweeted this morning an appeal for Brits to stay on track and work together to beat the bug.

He said: "I can confirm that we are past the peak of this disease. We are past the peak and we are on the downward slope.

"And we have so many reasons to be hopeful for the long term. But we can only defeat coronavirus by our collective discipline and working together."

It comes after Mr Johnson last night declared the UK has passed its coronavirus peak - as he promised to unveil a masterplan to exit lockdown next week.

The PM’s three-pronged blueprint will reveal how the economy can be restarted, children will be able to return to school and people can travel to work again safely.

Mr Johnson insisted the virus is still too widespread for any relaxation of the tough restrictions, declaring that “dates and times will very much depend on the data”.

And last night, he joined in the Clap for Carers from outside No10. He also:

• DECLARED austerity will not be part of the nation’s economic recovery, meaning he will not enforce drastic spending cuts to repay £200billion in extra Treasury debt.
• PROMISED to unveil “new and ingenious ways to suppress the disease” next week — given that much more is known about it.
• INSISTED the UK has successfully “avoided the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world”, as the NHS has never been overwhelmed.
• CONCEDED for the first time that his Government could have made mistakes in handling the virus outbreak, admitting: “I’m not going to pretend we’re not learning lessons every day.”

The latest data yesterday revealed new cases have more than halved since the numeric peak on Good Friday, and the new daily death toll of 674 has also halved since then.

While the toll stands at 26,771, it was still well below the worst-case scenario of 500,000, the PM argued.

The PM also insisted the key to when the lockdown will end will be what effect actions have on the rate of the virus’s transmission — known as R, for reproduction.

It is entirely plausible for a second wave to actually be more severe than the first if it is not mitigated.

Prof Chris Whitty

Prof Whitty echoed Mr Johnson’s statement on the R rate – currently between 0.6 and 0.9 – and said we need to keep it below one to ensure we don’t get another killer outbreak.

He said: “We need to make sure that R does not go back above one. Because if not we will go back to a second wave.

“It is entirely plausible for a second wave to actually be more severe than the first if it is not mitigated.”

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Mr Johnson said yesterday: “I can confirm today for the first time that we are past the peak of this disease, and on the downward slope.

“Or rather, we’ve come under what could have been a vast peak, as though we’ve been going through some huge alpine tunnel and we can now see the sunlight and pasture ahead of us.”

“It is vital that we do not now lose control and run slap into a second and even bigger mountain.”

Calling for another huge heave of “collective discipline”, the PM said: “I know we can do it, because we did it, we’ve shown we can do it, in phase one of this disease.

“This country came together in a way few of us have seen in our lifetimes.”

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Covid-19’s R rate was at three when the lockdown was ordered on March 23.

If R is higher than one, it means any infected person will pass on the virus to more than one other — and the bug could spread rapidly again in a fresh outbreak.

But if R can be kept under one, the disease should eventually fade away as not enough new people are infected to sustain it.

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