North West and South West may have to STAY in lockdown as Matt Hancock suggests local restrictions after R rate rise

THE North West and South West of England may have to stay in lockdown for longer than other parts of the UK, it was suggested last night.

Matt Hancock raised the prospect of localised restrictions yesterday - hinting that areas hit harder by coronavirus could face tougher measures than others.

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The crucial coronavirus R rate has crept back up above one in the North West and South West of England, latest figures show.

The Government has stressed throughout the pandemic that the R rate must remain below one in order to avoid a second peak of the virus.

If it rises above this level, the disease can spread exponentially, infecting more and more people.

R RATE RISES

New research by Public Health England and Cambridge University suggests the reproduction rate is 1.01 in the North West and 1.0 in the South West.

There is also evidence to suggest the value has risen in all regions, saying it was probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households in public and work settings.

And as the nation awaits a further easing of lockdown measures - including pubs and restaurants reopening - the setback could mean tougher restrictions being enforced on local areas.

Speaking at last night's Downing Street briefing, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the Government was "seeking to take a more local approach" to tackling outbreaks.

He added that there was a "challenge" in both the North West and the South West of England regarding the spread of the disease.

Now, that doesn't take away from the need to make sure that we spot and crackdown on localised outbreaks when they come.

Matt Hancock

But he noted: "It is very important that you look at all of these different studies in the round.

"The study you mentioned is an important one but the overall assessment which is brought together by SAGE which advises the Chief Medical Officer is what I look at.

"So we referred to the Office for National Statistics study that ... is based on data rather than modelling but what I do is look at all of these different studies and the overall view of SAGE is that the R is between 0.7 and 0.9 and that it is higher in the South West of England and the North West of England but it remains below one in each area.

"Now, that doesn't take away from the need to make sure that we spot and crackdown on localised outbreaks when they come."

'SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF DISORDER'

Mr Hancock's comments come after documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned last week that localised lockdowns could cause a "significant issue of public disorder". 

In the documents, Professor Clifford Stott of Keele University (a professor specialising in hooliganism and riots) and the security sub-group of scientists, wrote: "Restrictions imposed in the UK during the epidemic have not led to conflict thus far because they have been perceived as fair (for the most part)."

"Any sense of inequality arising from the imposition of selective measures would likely lead to civil disorder and feed the propaganda of extremist groups and hostile states.

"Households within local areas may also fear retaliation if cases within a neighbourhood prevent release and may conceal cases as a result."

The scientists also warned that local lockdowns will ruin the sense of community that Brits have felt, and kill the spirit of "we're all in this together".

Cutting up parts of towns of cities would shatter Government support for the measures, and "could lead to significant public disorder", the documents warned.

Using other measures to halt the spread of the bug, Mr Hancock has said there is a huge package of work underway by the NHS "to get transmission of coronavirus in hospital right down".

In recent weeks it's been noted that the R rate is likely to be higher in care home settings, creating pockets of higher transmission which could push the average up.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government's chief scientific adviser, said yesterday that the R rate for England was between 0.7 and 1 but remained between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole.

The R-number is the average number of people that will contract coronavirus from an infected person.

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If R is one or higher, the virus will spread exponentially through the population.

An R number of less than one indicates the virus is in decline.

The R rate is so important given the implications it could have for lockdown measures. If it rises above one - a sign the epidemic is growing - tougher restrictions may be reintroduced.

There is a time lag in the calculations, with the latest R value relating to what was happening two to three weeks ago.

'Downward trajectory'

Sir Patrick said the prevalence of Covid-19 was on a "downward trajectory" in the UK, adding: "The prevalence of coronavirus, according to the ONS, is at 0.1 per cent, with 53,000 people with Covid-19 in the past two weeks."

He said the incidence rate was at 0.7 per cent per week, which meant there were "roughly" 39,000 new coronavirus cases each week.

Sir Patrick said: "The latest R-value calculation is between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole, it may be a little bit higher in England it may be between 0.7 and 1, and there is a bit of regional variation."

He said there could be "some places" where the R-value is very close to one.

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PHE said latest estimates, worked out in conjunction with Cambridge University's MRC Biostatistics Unit, show it is highly likely that outside the North West and South West, the R value is below one in each other region of England.

Advisers believe the prevalence of Covid-19 is on a "downward trajectory", with figures from the Office for National Statistics showing there were 53,000 people with the disease in the past two weeks.

While there could be some areas of England where the R value is very close to one, scientific advisers said community transmission and the number of cases were down.

It is vital that everyone continues with social distancing, practising good hand hygiene and must remain at home and order a test if they have symptoms

Dr Yvonne DoylePHE's medical director

In a statement regarding the estimates for regional R numbers, Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE's medical director, said: "Our estimates show that the regional R numbers have increased although they remain below one for most of England - this is to be expected as we gradually move out of lockdown.

"It is vital that everyone continues with social distancing, practising good hand hygiene and must remain at home and order a test if they have symptoms."

But experts not involved with the work have cast their doubts over the findings.

Prof Sheila Bird, former Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, who was not involved in this work, said: "The findings are the opposite of reassuring.

“In no region of England is the effective reproduction number assuredly below 1 with regions’ median estimates ranging from 0.89 to 1.01.

"No wonder members of SAGE are worried."

For the North West, the median R number is marginally above 1, showing the epidemic could potentially still be growing

Colin CoxCumbria's director of public health

Colin Cox, Cumbria's director of public health, said: "The R number is very significant and something we have to pay close attention to.

"For the North West, the median R number is marginally above 1, showing the epidemic could potentially still be growing.

"This really underlines the importance of people maintaining social distancing and continuing to follow Government guidance as lockdown restrictions begin to ease.

"We will be monitoring the R number very carefully and a tightening of lockdown restrictions could be possible if the R number increases.

"This is something we all want to avoid, so we cannot be complacent.";

Local lockdowns

Boris Johnson's plans to reduce the severity of restrictions allow for more localised lockdowns to be enforced to prevent the spread.

One crucial means of suppressing transmission is the NHS test and trace system, which seeks to track down people who have come into contact with an infected individual, and tell them to isolate.

Downing Street was forced to defend the system after the Guardian reported that the scheme's chief operating officer, Tony Prestedge, told staff it would not be at full speed until as late as October.

Ministers have been unable to say how many people have been traced under the system, but the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "Thousands of people who have tested positive have been contacted in a matter of days and their close contacts successfully traced, using both online services and over the phone."

The lockdown is being eased across the UK, with Mr Johnson starting to send pupils back to school and permitting outdoor gatherings of up to six from Monday in England.

While the number of new infections appeared to be going down, Government scientific advisers believe the R rate is between 0.7 and 1 in England in their latest estimate.

The PHE and Cambridge modelling seeks to predict where it could stand now, and their estimate for Friday put the North West on 1.01 and the South West on 1.00.

The figure was lowest in the Midlands at 0.9 and stood at 0.95 in London.

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It comes after the number of people with Covid-19 in England has fallen to around 5,600 new infections a day from around 8,000 reported last week, figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on how many people at any one time are infected with Covid-19 based on swab results from households across the country.

The ONS said "modelling of the trend over time shows evidence that the number of people in England testing positive has decreased in recent weeks".

There were an estimated 39,000 new Covid-19 infections per week in England between April 26 and May 30, equating to an incidence rate per week of 0.07 new cases per 100 people.