HOPE ON HORIZON
UK death rate is NORMAL for the first time since Covid lockdown, Hancock says
THE number of people dying in the UK is now normal for this time of the year, the Health Secretary has said.
Matt Hancock said that it's the first time since before the country went into lockdown that the death rate was in line with the seasonal average.
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A total of 42,288 people have died from Covid-19 in the UK, including a 13-day-old baby who was today confirmed as the country's youngest victim.
Daily deaths have fallen in recent weeks with one in three NHS hospital trusts recording no coronavirus fatalities for a week.
Public Health England (PHE) said deaths from any cause are now in line with previous years for all age groups and regions.
Their figures show around 9,000 people died last week - down from around 22,000 at the peak of the outbreak.
Speaking at the Downing Street press briefing, he said: "For the first week since mid-March, the number of people who died in this country in total - from coronavirus and anything else - was no higher than is normal at this time of year.
"So that demonstrates that the number of deaths is coming right down.
"In a normal June week, in a normal year, it's statistically equivalent."
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Dr Mary Ramsay, from PHE, said: "Excess deaths have decreased and are now back in line with the numbers seen in previous years for all age groups and across every region in England.
"It is important that we continue to reduce the spread of Covid-19 and prevent deaths by washing our hands thoroughly, staying at home as much as possible, observing social distancing rules when in public and by self-isolating if you or anyone in your household has symptoms."
PHE said the numbers for last week are based on modelling and are not actual deaths. The exact figure is yet to be verified.
The average number of deaths for the same week over the last five years was 9,408, according to PHE.
According to the latest available figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the week ending June 5, there were a total of 10,709 deaths registered in the UK.
In the same week, over the past five years, the average number of deaths was 9,977.
The number of deaths in care homes was 335 higher than the five-year average, while in hospitals the number of deaths was 538 fewer.
The number of deaths is coming right down
Matt Hancock
Of those fatalities, 1,588 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate - the lowest number involving the virus in the last nine weeks.
The ONS publishes the number of registered deaths each week but on a fortnightly lag to account for as many as possible.
It means the exact ONS figures for the past week are yet to be officially published by the statisticians.
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The ONS revealed earlier today that the number of deaths in London from any cause had dropped below the five-year average in the first week of June.
The new research from professors at the University of Oxford found there had been no deaths in the past seven days at 49 trusts - 37 per cent of the 131 included in the study.
And Professor Carl Heneghan and Jason Oke from the university’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine said that in the past 48 hours 50 percent of trusts had reported no deaths.
Excess deaths
In the week ending June 5 the excess number of deaths was 732.
Prof Heneghan had previously said that we could see no deaths above seasonal average by the end of June.
He said from June 10 to June 16 there had been 442 Covid-19 deaths reported in hospitals in England.
This is down from 752 the week before, meaning that there had been 310 fewer.
He told The Times: “Therefore, we should have no excess deaths by the end of the month and it is possible we don’t have any by this week if the counts above are replicated in other settings.”
We should have no excess deaths by the end of the month
Professor Carl Heneghan
Dr Oke said that the North East and South West were the “most likely candidates” to follow London in returning to normal death levels.
Since March, London has seen fewer deaths than it did before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the week up to June 5 there were almost three per cent fewer people dying in the capital compared with the five-year average.
London had previously been a hot spot of the virus.
The North East reported 39 excess deaths in the latest week of figures while the South West reported 50.
The number of weekly deaths in England and Wales had been below average for the past five years before the pandemic hit.
Experts say this could be down to weaker strains of flu and milder winters.
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge said it “would not be surprising” if we were to see less deaths than average.
He added:“[This is] because of a mild winter without flu, but the other thing is because there will be an element of Covid taking up some deaths that would normally happen later in the year.”
This is while Prof Heneghan added that there are always variations going on and said low numbers in 2019 would mean that more vulnerable people were living in 2020.
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He said this means that in 2021 there will be less people going into that category, so there will be a regression year to year.
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It comes as the number of people with Covid-19 in England continues to fall but the rate of decline is slowing, figures from the ONS show.
The average number of infections per day since the end of April has fallen from 4,500 last week to 3,800, according to the figures.
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