Donald Trump ‘could pull off another upset and smash Biden’ like he did Hillary, new analysis shows
PRESIDENT Trump could beat Joe Biden in another 2016-style upset, according to a recent analysis by Axios.
Polls have ahead, and many political pundits are saying doesn’t stand a chance. However, experts predicted similar results in 2016, with polls by CNN and other mainstream news sites putting .
SWING STATES: 2016 AND 2020
Pennsylvania - 2016: Clinton +9.2; 2020: Biden +5.7
Michigan - 2016: Clinton +9.0; 2020: Biden +6.7
Wisconsin - 2016: Clinton +11.5; 2020: Biden +6.5
Florida - 2016: Clinton +2.9; 2020: Biden +4.8
The majority of predictions in 2016 pegged Clinton as the surefire winner of the election. Similar predictions are being made now regarding Biden.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll put the number of which is more than enough undecided ballots to sway the election.
One phenomenon that has been heavily known to skew voting is social desirability bias, wherein people respond to polls about their opinions by downplaying their views that are less popular and emphasizing opinions that make them look better.
Despite Trump’s attempts to undermine Biden’s appearance, he is viewed far more positively than Clinton was. A particular segment of the voters that have come out in favor of Biden is the elderly, who were largely pro-Trump before.
Trump also will likely suffer from losing his status as an outsider candidate, which helped his appeal in 2016.
Economically speaking, the stock market is booming in the face of the pandemic, and blue collar workers - a cornerstone of Trump’s base - are doing well.
Trump has gone up 20 points among white people, who make up the vast majority of the electorate. He is also receiving more support in the hispanic community than he did in 2016.
On the other hand, women and college-educated white people have strayed away from supporting Trump.
Another issue for the Biden campaign stems from the fact that he seems to be increasingly embracing far-left policy.
“If you look at Joe Biden’s goals and Bernie Sanders’s goals, they’re not that different, from a forty-thousand-foot level,” he said.