ON THE R-ISE
Official coronavirus R rate hits 1.4 across UK – as cases double every 7 days
THE coronavirus R rate has hit 1.4 across the entire country - and cases may be doubling every seven days, officials fear.
Government scientists say they are confident the number is now above the crucial value of 1 which means the epidemic is growing again.
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They estimated the figure to be between a range of 1.1 and 1.4 for the whole of the UK, which has risen from between 1 and 1.2 last week.
It means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 14 other people.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
Sage also said it is concerned coronavirus cases may currently be doubling as quickly as every seven days nationally, with transmission rates potentially even faster in some areas of the country.
It said: "It's even more important for people to remain disciplined and adhere to the current rules."
GROWING
The regional breakdown suggests that the range for every region is now above 1, except the South West which is somewhere between 0.9 and 1.6.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) also warns the growth rate - which reflects how quickly the number of infections are changing day-by-day - has increased.
Last week the growth rate was between minus one per cent and three per cent - this week it's between two per cent and seven per cent.
This means that the number of new infections is growing by two and seven per cent every day, rather than shrinking slightly as it was last week.
The coronavirus R-rate by region
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has published the latest coronavirus R-rates for each region in England.
East of England: 1.0-1.3
London: 1.1-1.4
Midlands: 1.2-1.5
North East and Yorkshire: 1.2-1.4
North West: 1.2-1.5
South East: 1.1-1.4
South West: 0.9-1.6
A Sage spokesperson said: "When the numbers of cases or deaths fall to low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate.
"For example, a significant amount of variability across a region due to a local outbreak may mean that a single average value does not accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout that region.
"It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable, and that there is widespread growth of the epidemic across the country.
"These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare."
1
Experts say the latest R-rate figures are "unsurprising" and warn that it could be the tip of the iceberg as the data has about a two-week lag.
Prof Kevin McConway, a statistician at the Open University, said: “Unsurprisingly, given all that’s been said and published about the current state of the pandemic, the ranges are higher than they were last week.
“This is undoubtedly concerning, and particularly so when we take into account that the data behind these estimates come from several sources.
"Many of which - such as hospital admissions, admissions to intensive care, and deaths - lag behind the growth in new infections, because it takes time for people to become ill enough to require hospital treatment or, sadly, to die.
"So the estimates cannot take into account very recent changes in the patterns of new infections."
What does R rate mean?
The R rate refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R rate of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R rate is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
It comes after experts last week predicted the R-rate was sitting at 1.7 for England and could even be as high as 2.5 in the North East.
The report, from scientists at Imperial College London, was based on swabs from based on 150,000 volunteers since August 22.
They found 13 people per 10,000 were infected in England in the fortnight up to September 7, compared with just four per 10,000 between July 24 and August 11.
Their study findings differed greatly from the Government's official R rate of between 1 and 1.2.
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But Sage experts say their is a lag in their estimates as they use a variety of data sources.
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Meanwhile, data published by the Office for National Statistics today shows that there has been 6,000 new daily Covid infections from September 4 to September 10.
That's double last week it was estimated that 3,200 a day were being infected by the virus.
Sir Patrick Vallance issues transmission warning with Coronavirus R rate said to be as high as 1.7
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