ON THE R-ISE
Coronavirus R rate creeps back up again – and is highest in South West
BRITAIN'S R rate has crept up again - with new coronavirus cases spreading fastest in the South West.
The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to - is estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.5.
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It's a slight increase on last week when the figure published by Sage was between 1.2 and 1.5.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
An R number between 1.3 and 1.5 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 13 and 15 other people.
By regional breakdown, the R rate is marginally higher in the South West at 1.3 to 1.6 while the growth rate is also the highest at between six and 10 per cent.
It's understood an outbreak of cases around the university campus in Exeter has pushed up the rate for the South West region.
However, the most recent seven-day average case data from the NHS shows that cases in the region are among some of the lowest in the country with an average of 606 daily new infections.
By comparison, the seven-day average in the North West - the current Covid hotspot - is 3,824 daily new infections.
It's important to note that Sage's R rating estimate lags behind the Government's daily cases and deaths data by about two weeks.
'GROWING EXPONENTIALLY'
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is now between four per cent and seven per cent.
However, the most likely value is towards the middle of that range, the experts say.
Scientists behind the data said R and growth rates are not the only important measures of the epidemic and should be considered alongside other metrics.
What does R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
Sage said it was "almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country, and is confident that the transmission is not slowing.
"While the R value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate.
"This is currently the case for every region of England and all have positive growth rates, reflecting increases in the number of new infections across the country."
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN
The regional breakdown reveals that London - which will go into Tier 2 lockdown restrictions from tonight - has the lowest R rate range at between 1.1 and 1.4.
It's also fallen since last week when it was between 1.2 and 1.4.
The Midlands remains unchanged from last week at between 1.2 and 1.5, while the range in the East of England is down marginally from 1.3 to 1.6 last week to between 1.3 and 1.5 this week.
Elsewhere, the R rate is also down slightly in the North East of England to between 1.3 and 1.4 - it was between 1.3 and 1.5 last week.
In the North West - the country's epicentre - the R rate is between 1.3 and 1.5, which has gone up from last week when it was between 1.2 and 1.4.
The South East, which also go into Tier 2 from tonight, has also seen a slight increase in the R rate from last week and is now somewhere between 1.3 and 1.5.
TOUGHER RESTRICTIONS
It comes as another 1.5 million people in England will be placed under the toughest coronavirus restrictions this weekend as Lancashire moves into Tier 3.
The Government announced further measures to stem the "unrelenting rise" in Covid-19 cases in the North West county amid a furious row over restrictions in Greater Manchester.
Pubs and bars across Lancashire will close unless they serve food and alcohol as part of a sit-down meal from Saturday, while stricter restrictions on socialising will also come into force.
People will not be able to mix with others in any indoor setting or private garden, as well as in most outdoor hospitality venues.
Casinos, bingo halls, bookmakers, betting shops, soft play areas and adult gaming centres will be forced to shut, while car boot sales will also be banned.
But gyms will remain open despite them being closed in Liverpool City Region - the only other area of England under Tier 3 restrictions.
The new restrictions, which will be reviewed every fortnight, cover all parts of the county, including: Burnley, Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Chorley, Fylde, Hyndburn, Lancaster, Pendle, Preston, Ribble Valley, Rossendale, South Ribble, West Lancashire and Wyre.
The coronavirus rate across the whole of Lancashire is 345.1 cases per 100,000, up from 241.2 in the previous week.
Latest figures suggest that the weekly rate of new cases continues to rise in Liverpool. For the seven days to October 11 it stood at 676.6 per 100,000 people. This is up from 580.1 in the week before (seven days to October 4), and 342.7 the week before that (seven days to September 27).
By contrast the weekly rate for Manchester has fallen. It was 473.0 cases per 100,000 people in the week to October 11, down from 558.0 in the week to October 4. Before that, in the week to September 27, it was 307.5.
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MORE ON CORONAVIRUS
Meanwhile, separate figures presented to Government scientists suggested around 47,000 Covid-19 infections are occurring daily across England, with deaths expected to hit 240 to 690 per day by October 26.
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Yet the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that there were an average of 27,900 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private households in England between October 2 and 8.
This is up from an estimated 17,200 new cases per day for the period from September 25 to October 1.
Boris Johnson says he will impose Tier 3 restrictions on Manchester and other areas who refuse to act
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