RATE OF CHANGE
Daily coronavirus cases soar 50% in a week – with 568,000 infected in 7 days
DAILY cases of the coronavirus have increased by 50 per cent in just a week with 568,000 infected within seven days, data has revealed.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that cases of the virus have grown in all age groups - but especially in older teenagers and young adults.
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The most recent ONS data covers the period from 17 to 23 October 2020 and states that 1 in 100 people are infected with the virus.
Last week it reported that 433,300 people were infected with the virus in private households - this figure excludes care homes.
Figures from last week also state that there were 35,000 new cases of the virus, while this week the ONS recorded 51,900 new cases per day.
The ONS stated that incidence rates have continued to increase in recent weeks and stated that its model is unable to account for household clustering.
This means that it will not be able to detect when a household has been struck down by the virus.
One expert today said the figures from the ONS show that the virus is accelerating.
Prof James Naismith FRS FRSE FMedSci, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said: “ONS data suggests one per cent of the English population is infected with Covid-19.
"These new data would estimate a doubling time of 12 to 14 days."
Case estimates vary across data providers and the ONS estimates that there are 51,900 new cases a day.
The ONS excludes infections in hospitals, care homes and/or other institutional settings. It's figures refer to the number of infections within the community population.
It states: "We use current Covid-19 infections to mean testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, with or without having symptoms, on a swab taken from the nose and throat."
Estimates from the Department of Health and Social Care estimate that this is at 23,065, on October 29.
Data from King's College London, which covers the two weeks up to October 25 suggests that there are 43,569 a day, and the latest survey figures were based on the data from 12,390 recent swab tests done between October 11 to October 25.
Data from Imperial College London states there could be up to 96,000 a day.
The REACT study is based on data from more than 85,000 swab tests taken between October 16 and 25 - with some as recent as last Sunday.
Cambridge data is similar to the ONS and estimates that there are 55,600 cases a day.
This is based on the numbers of people who are dying from the disease and takes into consideration data that shows how much people are interacting with each and how much they are travelling.
Prof Naismith added: “We can’t simply average or say one is right. They are all well planned and carried out by experts. They all measure slightly different things and therefore have uncertainty."
Age matters
In recent weeks the ONS states that there has been an increase in the amount of people testing positive for the virus.
The report states: "There has been growth in positivity in all age groups over the past two weeks.
"Older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest positivity rates, while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.
"However, caution should be taken in over-interpreting small movements in the narrower age groups which have wider credible intervals. This is based on statistical modelling of nose and throat swab test results."
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Graphs produced by the ONS show that the biggest increase has been in young adults in school year 12 to age 24.
A large increase has also been seen in school year 7 to 11 and aged two to school year six.
Smaller increases have been seen in older generations with those aged 25 to 34 having a small increase, similar to those aged 35 to 49 and those aged 50 to 69.
Cases in people aged 70 and over seem to have remained relatively flat.
Regional breakdown
Looking at cases on a regional basis and the ONS states that all regions have seen an increase.
It comes as several areas will be moved into higher Tier restrictions this weekend following an uptick in cases.
King's College London also today revealed the seven places that could be going into Tier 3.
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The ONS report states: "Looking at trends over time, there has been growth in positivity in most regions of England over the last two weeks.
"Rates continue to increase steeply in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.
"Positivity rates in the North East have levelled off in recent weeks but remain above the England average.
"Previously, positivity rates in the South West were level, however, the rates appear to be increasing. But as the rates remain low, caution should be taken when interpreting whether rates are increasing in the South West."
Graphs provided by the ONS show a slight dip in cases in the North East.
Despite this, data from King's College suggested that several areas in the region could be entering into Tier 3 restrictions.
Its model predicted that Sunderland, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, South Tyneside and Country Durham are all on the watchlist.
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The graphs also show an increase in the West Midlands and Kings College also highlighted that some of these areas could face further restrictions, while local council leaders have also discussed the possibility of a Tier 3 lockdown.
It was yesterday reported that the number of Brits who have lost their lives to coronavirus is nearing 46,000 - as another 280 people were reported to have died from the virus.
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Figures from NHS England yesterday stated that 23,065 more people tested positive for the deadly bug.
In total, 45,955 people have died with Covid since the UK's outbreak began.
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