Coronavirus R rate drops for second week in a row – but stays above 1
THE UK's coronavirus R rate has dropped for the second week in a row - but remains above 1 across the country, it emerged today.
The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to - is now estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3.
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The estimate from Sage is lower than the R rate prediction from Imperial College London scientists, who yesterday published the latest data from their REACT study.
Their findings - based on tests from 85,000 people - suggest the UK's R rate is 1.6, with most of the South nearing 2, while London is almost at 3.
Today's official prediction offers a glimmer of hope, showing movement in the right direction.
Last Friday's update, saw Sage scientists estimate the R rate was between 1.2 and 1.4. On October 16, their predictions put it between 1.3 and 1.5.
While every region's R rate remains above the crucial value of 1, it is now higher in the South than the North - where many local authorities are subject to tougher lockdown measures.
Prof Kevin McConway from The Open University said the R rate does "indicate that the number of infections is still growing".
But he added: "It is considerably slower growth than at the peak stage of growth in the first wave, back in the Spring."
It comes as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its weekly infection survey, which showed cases increased 50 per cent in just a week - with around 51,900 new infections a day.
A separate study, led by scientists at King's College London, estimated from data input into the Zoe symptoms app, around 43,569 people were infected each day in the week up to October 25.
Growing epidemic
The R rate represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
An R number between 1.1 and 1.3 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 13 other people.
Sage also published the latest growth rate for the UK, estimating it to be between two and four per cent.
This means that the number of new infections is growing by two to four per cent every day.
In the East of England the R rate is between 1.2 and 1.4, with the growth rate currently between three and six per cent.
This is the same in both the Midlands and in the South East.
In London the R rate is currently between 1.1 and 1.3, with a growth rate of two to six per cent.
That is considerably lower than the prediction from Imperial's REACT study, which put London's R rate closer to 3.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan's team are said to be expecting tougher lockdown measures within weeks.
Sources close to City Hall said he believes it is ";highly likely" that Tier Three restrictions will be brought to the capital in the "coming weeks", the Mail reported.
But Government sources have stressed that no decisions are imminent and the latest data referring to the capital has yet to be crunched.
Earlier this month London was moved from 'medium' to 'high' alert, meaning Londoners can no longer mix inside with people who are not from their household.
Sixteen areas will move into Tier Two at midnight - including Oxford, Luton, East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston Upon Hull, Derbyshire Dales, Derby and Staffordshire.
West Yorkshire will move into Tier 3 - 'very high risk' - from Monday, with Birmingham on the brink of following suit.
The North East and Yorkshire sits in the same position as London with an R rate between 1.1 and 1.3.
King's College London today revealed that several areas in the North East could face being pushed into Tier 3 restrictions as cases continue to rise in the certain local authority areas.
What does R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
There are four areas in the North East that feature on the watchlist, Sunderland is first, followed by Newcastle Upon Tyne and South Tyneside.
County Durham is also on the list but it in 7th place, Hartlepool in County Durham topped the list last week.
The South West currently has an R rate between 1.2 and 1.5 with a growth rate of four to seven per cent.
Infection rates
Figures from the ONS today revealed that cases of the virus have grown in all age groups – but especially in older teenagers and young adults.
The most recent ONS data covers the period from 17 to 23 October 2020 and states that 1 in 100 people are infected with the virus.
Last week it reported that 433,300 people were infected with the virus in private households – this figure excludes care homes.
Figures from last week also state that there were 35,000 new cases of the virus, while this week the ONS recorded 51,900 new cases per day.
Estimates from the Department of Health and Social Care estimate that this is at 23,065, on October 29.
Data from King’s College London, which covers up to October 25 suggests that there are 43,569 a day, while data from Imperial College London states there could be up to 96,000 a day.
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Cambridge data is similar to the ONS and estimates that there are 55,600 cases a day.
It was yesterday reported that the number of Brits who have lost their lives to coronavirus is nearing 46,000 – as another 280 people were reported to have died from the virus.
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Figures from NHS England yesterday stated that 23,065 more people tested positive for the deadly bug.
In total, 45,955 people have died with Covid since the UK’s outbreak began.