XMAS HOPE
England’s lockdown should end on December 2 but next fortnight is ‘crucial’, SAGE advisers say
ENGLAND'S lockdown should end as planned on December 2 - but the next fortnight is "crucial", Government scientists said today.
Brits were sent into lockdown last week in a desperate attempt to slow the spread of the deadly bug.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
3
One Sage scientist today said she was "quite hopeful" but warned the next two weeks would be crucial in the fight against coronavirus and getting out of lockdown.
Professor Susan Michie told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "For the next two weeks, everybody has to really get all their resolve together."
She added that it was likely to be "very challenging", saying it was "partly because of the weather (and) partly because, I think, the promise of a vaccine may be making people feel complacent.
"But the vaccine is very unlikely to come in until the end of the year or beginning of next year and that's going to make no difference to the current second wave."
She added that lockdowns in Wales and Northern Ireland had brought transmission rates down.
Covid cases are thought to be flattening out across England with the R rate now estimated to be 0.9 across the country according to the Covid Symptom Study app while Sage's most recent estimate, published on Friday, is that the R rate is somewhere between 1.1 and 1.3.
And that members of the Government's SAGE advisory group believe the Tier 3 regional restrictions had an impact, cutting daily contact by a third.
Advisers believe that a revised tier system after the national lockdown could stop cases rising again, the newspaper reports.
SAGE documents released on Friday that were dated November 4 said if England returned to "the same" tiering system, then transmission would be back on the rise again.
John Edmunds, who led the study and works with the the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: "The tier system did have some impact in reducing contact and especially Tier 3 had a very significant impact.
"Tier 3 restrictions reduced that by 1.5 contacts a day, which in the context of five daily contacts is a big change."
Tier 1 restrictions which allowed people to meet indoors and in groups of six were thought to be largely useless.
Sage members now hope the cases will start falling in the next week after 27,301 new infections were recorded yesterday.
This would then pave the way for the national lockdown to be lifted on December 2 as planned, with regions then going into Tiers according to their infection levels.
And while some areas may need to remain in the highest tier, others will be able to go back to Tier 2 restrictions, meaning that pubs, restaurants and gyms will be able to reopen.
3
3
Government scientists had previously warned that the UK has "little to no scope" of relaxing social distancing rules for Christmas.
It comes after documents released last week suggested that Brits can celebrate Christmas... next summer.
The scientists said "planning a summer family get together could replace meeting at Christmas".
They say Brits could also opt to "self quarantine" over New Year if they want to spend the festive season with family.
And they recommended giving youngsters free Netflix subscriptions or mobile phone data to encourage them to comply.
The bug could also mean Christmas is cancelled across Europe this year.
Asked at a press conference on Thursday whether people could begin buying train tickets to travel home at Christmas, French Prime Minister Jean Castex said it was "a bit too early to say”.
“The pressure on our hospitals has intensified enormously," he said.
Most read in News
“It would be irresponsible to soften the lockdown now. The gains are fragile,” Castex said.
READ MORE SUN STORIES
He said that one person was being hospitalised with the virus somewhere in France every 30 seconds.
In Germany, health minister Jens Spahn said it was "too early to tell" whether measures introduced at the start of this month would be enough to prevent a further spike in cases.
Domonic Raab vows that the Second UK lockdown will end on December 2
Topics