Top Tories did not see Brexit coming… even Leave backer Gove conceded defeat and went to bed
Brexit is a new chapter... now give us a happy ending
IT is the greatest shock in modern British political history – and one that almost no one saw coming.
On Thursday evening, the Goves invited several of those who had worked on the Brexit campaign and some friends for dinner.
Several of the guests talked about how their hope was that the margin of defeat would be close enough to keep alive the idea of a second referendum.
Meanwhile, a confident Number 10 was worried that Gove might resign if Brexit lost, scuppering the plan to reunite the Tory party.
Gove himself went to bed before any of the results were in.
Those at the dinner say he wasn’t expecting Brexit to win when he headed up the stairs.
The first he knew of the result was when his team called him at 4.45am, shortly after ITV had called the referendum for Leave.
They told him the epoch-making news.
Around 7am, David Cameron called him to concede defeat. I am told that, despite the bitterness of the campaign, Cameron was polite and decent.
Britain is now in exciting but uncharted waters. The most important business facing the country is how to leave the EU.
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Britain, in the words of one Brexiteer, now faces “the most complicated negotiation since 1520”, when Henry VIII met King Francis I of France to increase the bond of friendship between the two nations.
Angela Merkel’s conciliatory tone is an encouraging indicator that the EU’s most powerful leader is intent on approaching these negotiations in a constructive manner.
Not every European leader, though, can be relied upon to behave rationally. One influential figure on the Leave side warns: “There will be powerful individuals who try to muck this up.”
Cameron, however, has ensured that it will be the new Prime Minister who determines when to start the process for leaving the European Union.
Some influential Tories are arguing that the pro-Leave Justice Minister Dominic Raab, a whip-smart former Foreign Office lawyer, should be sent to assess what kind of deal can be made.
Any new Prime Minister is likely to go to the country to seek a mandate for the aims of their exit talks. One well-placed source on the Leave side says: “It is hard to imagine how it would happen without that.”
This approach would also ensure that any new Prime Minister had the maximum time between leaving the single market and a new General Election.
What is vital is that the promises made in this campaign are kept. A failure to do so would be disastrous for people’s faith in politics.
So, immigration policy must be put under UK control, workers’ rights must be protected and VAT must be taken off domestic fuel.
But any new Prime Minister must think of some other policies that would show the world that Britain is still an outward-looking nation which is open for business.
Cutting corporation tax to ten per cent is one idea advocated by several senior figures on the Leave campaign.
A new chapter in the history of Britain was started yesterday. We now wait to see whether our leaders can make it one with a happy ending.
You Dan a fine job
WHEN the networks called it for Brexit, Vote Leave HQ erupted.
They had achieved something few of them had thought possible even a few weeks ago.
The campaigning MEP Dan Hannan clambered on to the desks and thanked those present.
He said June 24 is his wedding anniversary and he had never had a better present. Then came Dominic Cummings, the maverick who had masterminded Vote Leave’s success.
It was Cummings who had coined the Vote Leave, Take Control slogan that proved so effective.
But it was two other decisions which he took, both of which infuriated people on his own side at the time, that were key to victory.
First, he refused to have anything to do with Nigel Farage. Second, he didn’t have Vote Leave make any policy statements until the election rules meant that the Government machine had to stay silent.
This meant that Leave grabbed the initiative as soon as the short campaign started. Once they had done that, they were always in the hunt.
For Labour, which prides itself on being the party that represents the workers, this is a disaster.
What is most alarming for Labour is that this problem goes far beyond Jeremy Corbyn.
It won’t be solved by simply replacing him with a more moderate leader.
Remember that the man Corbyn beat for the leadership, Andy Burnham, saw his own area vote for Leave.
If Labour is not to face the same fate in the north of England that it did in Scotland, it is going to need to find a way to reconnect with its old working-class base.
DAVID CAMERON’S resignation means a Tory leadership contest will start next week.
The expectation is that Tory MPs will whittle down the field to two before parliament breaks up for the summer on July 21.
Boris Johnson is the firm favourite. But this will be a contested succession not a coronation.
There are some Tories who will never forgive Boris for backing Out.
They will do what they can to stop him; and some will not accept his leadership as legitimate even if he wins.
But one ally of Boris’s warns that: “The public will expect to see him as PM.”
The argument goes that as he led the winning side in the referendum campaign, the voters will expect him to replace Cameron in Number 10.
The other person who fits into this bracket is Michael Gove.
Some Cabinet members would like to see him run. They believe he would be better at the job than Boris and find it easier to reunite the party.
But I understand that Gove is not planning to put himself forward.
One influential figure in the Leave campaign says: “Michael has acquired a new respect for Boris in this process.”
Those on the Vote Leave team have bonded during this campaign: “They have become a band of brothers and sisters. There is a logic to them taking on the challenge they have created,” I am told.
Those close to Gove, though, stress he has made no decision about what to do.
Theresa May can be expected to run. She has her admirers in the party and many members respect the way she stayed above the fray in the referendum, avoiding getting dragged into the cycle of blue on blue attacks.
She was, reluctantly, for Remain and one can see her as a safe pair of hands through this crisis.
But her lack of a following in the parliamentary party will make it hard for her to make the final two.
One Remain backer who might stand a chance is Stephen Crabb.
Many Tories feel that the party needs a blue collar leader now, not another Old Etonian.
Crabb, who grew up on a council estate, fits that bill. There are also some early signs that he is picking up support from those MPs who were most loyal to Cameron.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator