TEETIERING
All-out war as London heads five southern virus hotspots battling to escape plunging into Tier 3 Xmas ‘devastation’
AREAS teetering on the brink of being plunged into Tier 3 lockdowns over Christmas and New Year are fighting “an all-out war” to save jobs and businesses.
London is among them, along with Essex, Somerset, Bath and North East Somerset, Gloucestershire plus Wiltshire and Swindon.
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Any changes will be announced on Wednesday and remain in place for at least two weeks. Bars and restaurants would be closed until December 30 — with the clampdown unlikely to be lifted for New Year’s Eve.
Last night, as Tory MPs begged Boris Johnson for mercy, Covid expert Prof Tim Spector said: “Currently we have no data that suggests the NHS in England is at risk of being overwhelmed.
“Before increasing restrictions I believe a full cost-benefit evaluation should be made, that accounts for other factors such as mental health, the economy and employment.
“In all the key regions, the dashboard is either trending down or staying the same, so things aren’t getting worse.”
Data from the Zoe UK Infection Survey also showed that daily new Covid cases are falling nationwide.
Meanwhile, London has overtaken cities in the North to become England’s coronavirus capital.
Government insiders warned the situation is “fragile” amid rocketing infection rates among teenagers.
In response, London Mayor Sadiq Khan is drafting in more cops and Covid marshals to police the streets.
Many thousands of extra tests will be sent to the capital within days. And more than 100,000 testing kits are being “surged” to schools in London’s worst-hit hotspots as well as neighbouring Kent and Essex.
Mr Khan said: “Tier 3 restrictions would be catastrophic for our pubs, bars, restaurants and culture venues.
“But with cases rising we are now at a tipping point, which is why we all have a responsibility to do everything we can to get on top of the virus.”
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Which areas may be moved a tier?
The COVID Symptom Study app has identified which areas may go up from Tier 2 to Tier 3, and down from Tier 3 to Tier 2.
This is based on some of the parameters the Government uses to decide tiers; the prevalence of the virus, the rates in the over 60s and the percentage of hospital beds occupied by Covid patients.
Five areas at risk of Tier 3
1.Essex, Thurrock and Southend on Sea
593 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
141 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.8 R rate
10.1 per cent NHS bed occupancy
2. London
569 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
165 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
1.0 R rate
11.6 per cent NHS bed occupancy
3. Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset
426 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
114 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.9 R rate
8.9 per cent NHS bed occupancy
4. Gloucestershire
407 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
90 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.9 R rate
8.9 per cent NHS bed occupancy
5. Wiltshire and Swindon
365 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
83 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.9 R rate
8.9 per cent NHS bed occupancy
Five areas that may move down to Tier 2
1.Derby and Derbyshire
573 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
104 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.7 R rate
15.6 per cent NHS bed occupancy
2. Tees Valley (LA5)
562 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
111 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.8 R rate
15.4 per cent NHS bed occupancy
3. Bristol, South Gloucestershire, North Somerset
558 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
90 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.9 R rate
8.9 per cent NHS bed occupancy
4. Greater Manchester
557 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
128 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.8 R rate
16.4 per cent NHS bed occupancy
5. Nottingham and Nottinghamshire
435 prevalence per 100,000 (how many people currently have the virus)
43 prevalence rate in the over 60s per 100,000
0.7 R rate
15.6 per cent NHS bed occupancy
With shops staying open, a pre-New Year move to Tier 3 could see huge crowds of bored Brits flocking to sales just for something to do.
London is the only English region where infections are not falling, with the R rate estimated to average around 1. But cases vary greatly from borough to borough with, for instance, six times more in Enfield than in Kingston upon Thames.
Rates have been soaring in seven boroughs in the east — Barking and Dagenham, Hackney and the City, Havering, Newham, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest.
And Downing Street is under increasing pressure to hive off only these areas into Tier 3, leaving the rest of the city in Tier 2.
Tory MP Bob Blackman warned it would be “a disaster” if the whole capital was ordered into Tier 3.
He said: “The hospitality industry is already on its knees and this would finish it off for good. It would risk huge unemployment, particularly among young people.”
Prof Spector said: “In London the cases are possibly starting to rise again, but I would be very cautious about plunging all 9million people into further restrictions, with such big differences across the capital.”
Government insiders fear a rate surge among schoolkids will quickly spread to grannies and grandads when families mix at Christmas.
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And cops blasted “selfish” ravers throwing parties while others are dying. Deputy Assistant Commissioner Matt Twist, the Met’s Covid chief, said: “It is really saddening that in the week a vaccine finally began its rollout to the most vulnerable we are facing the possibility of tougher restrictions.
“But the infection rates show not all of us are being careful enough.”
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He warned that if people do not change their behaviour now “then people will die who could have otherwise lived — it’s that simple”. And he added: “We will not allow the irresponsible and selfish actions of a few jeopardise the safety of the entire city.”
The Government said it was too early to say what areas will change tiers.
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Where did cases rise the most?
Data from Public Health England shows where cases rose the most in the week to December 6. The data is shown as the name of the place, the cases per 100,000 and the per cent change:
Bracknell Forest: 165.65, 70.6 per cent
Central Bedfordshire: 119.52, 51.31 per cent
Hackney and City of London: 195.98, 51.2 per cent
Southend-on-Sea: 204.78, 50.61 per cent
Enfield: 243.56, 48.90 per cent
Haringey: 208.82, 48.02 per cent
Waltham Forest: 313.74, 47.79 per cent
Harrow: 216.59, 46.63 per cent
Wokingham: 142.59, 42.69 per cent
East Sussex: 122.21, 37.02 per cent
Thurrock: 268.44, 36.05 per cent
Havering: 389.13, 34.85 per cent
Essex: 195.14, 34.29 per cent
Bath and North East Somerset: 106.58, 33.76 per cent
Greenwich: 197.96, 33.18 per cent
Milton Keynes: 191.13, 33.08 per cent
Kingston upon Thames: 224.78, 31.68 per cent
Bromley: 198.29, 31.01 per cent
Southwark: 132.36, 30.65 per cent
Sutton: 176.88, 30.36 per cent
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Sadiq Khan warns Londoners with capital at risk of Tier 3 restrictions
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