Is my area at risk of Tier 3? The Covid hotspots on the brink of tougher restrictions today
THESE are the Covid hotspots on the brink of tougher tier restrictions, based on the latest app data.
Changes were due to be announced today but the Health Secretary was forced to put London and neighbouring counties into Tier 3 sooner.
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Ministers will still review the tiers today, with any changes expected to come into force by the weekend, potentially putting a dampner on Christmas cheer.
But for now, the ZOE Covid Symptom Study App - run by researchers at King's College London - has given a glimpse into what to expect.
Their data shows where cases have been increasing in the population as a whole, and in the over 60s, to estimate the areas at risk of moving tier level.
In the past seven days cases have increased in several areas, putting them at risk of going into Tier 3.
ON THE UP
From their most recent report, published yesterday, it suggests that Oxfordshire, East and West Sussex, Brighton and Hove and Northamptonshire have all seen an uptick in infections.
Oxfordshire is currently in Tier 2 and data from the app shows that the area has 188 cases per 100,000 and 50 cases per 100,000 people in the over 60s.
Walk-through Covid test sites opened in the area today in a bid to get more people tested - allowing more people to isolate who have contracted the virus.
The app has also predicted that East and West Sussex, Brighton and Hove could be moved into Tier 3.
The data suggests that the area has 232 cases per 100,000 people and 63 cases per 100,000 in those over the age of 60.
Earlier this week it was revealed that some schools in Brighton were forced to close due to outbreaks of the virus.
Northamptonshire has also seen a rise with 344 cases per 100,000 and 61 cases per 100,000 in the over 60s.
Moving into the "very high alert" level would force the hospitality sector to shut down, other than for takeaway service. It would also mean people can't meet friends and family outside or inside.
Data from King's College London is separate from data published by Public Health England (PHE) revealed that more than two thirds of local areas across England are seeing a rise in Covid-19 case rates.
Data from PHE states that seven days ago, 126 out of a total of 315 local authority areas had recorded a week-on-week jump in rates. That figure now stands at 222.
TIER WE GO
London moved from Tier 2 to Tier 3 at midnight after an increase in cases in the capital.
Parts of Essex and Hertfordshire have also been pushed into tougher restrictions today after a week-on-week rise in rates.
Every other local area in the South East region - with three exceptions; North Norfolk, South Norfolk and Stevenage - have seen an increase.
Meanwhile, the app data also indicates the areas that could be tipped for a reduction in restrictions, such as Tier 3 areas in the North of England.
Places such as Lancashire, Blackpool, and Blackburn with Darwen, have seen a fall in cases in the last seven days, according to the app.
Warrington and Cheshire, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and the Humber - all in Tier 3 - have also seen cases drop in recent days.
Other places currently under the toughest restrictions, such as Leicester, Birmingham and the Black Country, Warwickshire, Coventry and Solihull, have also recorded a drop in cases, based on the app data.
There is a clear case for Greater Manchester, or a large part of Greater Manchester, to be placed in Tier 2
Andy Burnham
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said there was a "clear case" for his region being moved down to Tier 2 as the Government is due to formally review what tiers are appropriate for each area.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr Burnham also said he would understand if the Government wanted to "err on the side of caution".
He added: "We have seen steady decreases across all of our boroughs pretty much ever since the last tiering decision, to the point where we are now essentially below the England average across the 10 boroughs - we are at 150 cases on average per 100,000 people, England averages 180.
"We are below London and below Liverpool when they went into Tier 2 originally.
"I accept the national mood has changed since those decisions were taken and I can also understand if the Government were wanting to err on the side of caution.
"There is a clear case for Greater Manchester, or a large part of Greater Manchester, to be placed in Tier 2."
Data from King's College London shows that there have been 23,115 daily new cases of Covid in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 11 December 2020.
This results are based on the number of newly symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab tests.
The government has stressed that areas will be moved into high tiers if they are unable to get cases under control.
Data from PHE states that Swale in Kent continues to have the highest rate in England, with 1,083 new cases recorded in the seven days to December 11 - the equivalent of 721.6 cases per 100,000 people.
This is up from 608.3 in the seven days to December 4.
Medway, also in Kent, has the second highest rate, up from 594.9 to 699.0, with 1,947 new cases.
Basildon in Essex is in third place, where the rate has risen sharply from 409.2 to 696.1, with 1,303 new cases.
The government is expected to release a further update tomorrow on any tier changes.
People will be able to travel out of their current tiers during the Christmas period.
The planned five-day "Christmas window" would allow three households to mingle between December 23-27.
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The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "We have set out the guidance for the Christmas bubbling arrangements.
"But... we obviously keep all advice under constant review."