Official R rate remains steady – but as high as 1.2 in North West as Indian variant spreads
THE OFFICIAL R rate has crept up to 1.1 in some parts of England, and could be 1.2 in the North West amid spread of the Indian coronavirus variant.
Figures also show “potential early signs of increase” across the country’s case numbers.
🔵 Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest updates
Experts have said it was always expected there would be a slight increase in the R rate once people were given more freedoms to socialise.
But cases have remained at a very low level in good signs the vaccines are working to suppress transmission.
However, there are concerns the Indian variant could scupper England’s chances at coming out of all Covid restrictions in June.
Already almost 3,500 cases have been detected across the UK, Public Health England said yesterday, a rise on the 2,111 figure a week ago.
Experts are split on whether it will derail lockdown lifting, with some believing outbreaks will remain localised in hotspots, such as in the North West.
But any final decisions won’t be made by ministers until the second week of June, when they know more about the fast-spreading strain.
It comes as:
- Cases of the Indian variant have quadrupled in the North West, and risen by 80 per cent in London
- Spread of the variant may "become a major issue in the lockdown roadmap waiting game" according to one Sage member
- Spain is allowing Brit holidaymakers to return from MONDAY without proof of a negative coronavirus test.
The R rate in England is now 0.9 to 1.1, according to Government advisers at Sage. Last week Sage said the value was 0.8 to 1.1.
It comes after the May 17 easing of restrictions in which people have been able to socialise together indoors in groups of six, including in pubs and resaturants.
The R rate is unlikely to account for this change as it takes a few weeks for the effects of each unlocking stage to become clear.
An R rate below 1.0 is favoured because it means that the outbreak is still shrinking,
The R rate in England has remained relatively constant since February 5, having peaked on January 15 at between 1.2 and 1.3.
For the last few weeks Sage has been unable to give a rate for the UK as a whole.
When cases are so low, as they are now, measuring the R rate becomes more challenging and therefore the final figure is not very accurate.
Sage said the R rate could be as high as 1.2 in the North West - the highest of any region. But it could also be 0.9.
The lowest R rate is predicted for the Midlands, North East and Yorkshire, and South East, at 0.8 to 1.0.
Meanwhile, the growth rate is predicted to be -2% to +1% in England.
It means the outbreak could be shrinking by two per cent each day, or growing by one per cent.
“Slight increase”
It comes as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) say the proportion of people testing positive for coronavirus in England shows “early signs of a potential increase”.
ONS gave its weekly estimates after swabbing thousands of people in random households across the country.
It said around one in 1,110 people had Covid in the week to May 15 – up from one in 1,340 the previous week.
It’s the equivalent of 49,000 people in the country.
But rates remain low, given that in January one in 50 people were testing positive.
The figure has been declining for several weeks since the peak in January, but has now reverted to a range similar to the end of April.
ONS said there were “early signs of an increase in the percentage of people testing positive in the North East, Yorkshire and The Humber and the South East”.
The agency added “the number of people testing positive continued to decrease in Scotland and remained low in Wales”.
It was too difficult to tell if there had been any increases of decreases in Wales and Northern Ireland.
Hotspots
The North West is battling the highest number of Indian variant cases, which in some areas is translating to high infection rates.
Bolton has the top highest case rate in England (341.5 per 100,000), having diagnosed almost 1,000 cases in the week to May 16.
Blackburn with Darwen has the second highest rate, 159.7 per 100,000, with 239 cases.
Most read in Health News
Elsewhere in England, Bedford has the third highest case rate, with 123.5 cases per 100,000 - 214 new cases in seven days.
READ MORE SUN STORIES
All three areas have been flagged as hotspots of the Indian variant, where the strain has now become more dominant than the Kent one.
The variant has also overthrown all others in London boroughs of Hounslow, Hackney and Croydon.