Tories could win 90-seat majority if Theresa May waits for boundary changes before holding general election
Research suggests it is not only bad news for Labour but very bad news for the Lib Dems
CHANGES to constituency boundaries favour the Tories and would put them on course for a 90-seat majority at the next general election, research suggests.
Political website Electoral Calculus has found Theresa May’s party could get a 48-seat lead due to the planned alterations to the size and make-up of constituencies.
And it has combined this with data from opinion polls where people have been asked their voting intentions in the next general election.
With the polls suggesting Labour will get a pasting if Jeremy Corbyn remains leader, the website concludes the Tories will get a majority of 90 seats in a smaller House of Commons.
As well as it being bad news for Corbyn it is also very bad for the Lib Dems with the website suggesting the party will be reduced to have just two MPs.
reports Electoral Calculus also found the expected reduction of constituencies in Scotland and Wales and the population shift from north to south would also favour Mrs May.
Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter said: "These new seat boundaries are going to transform the landscape of British politics and give a strong boost to the Conservatives' chance of winning the next election.”
The Boundary Commission, which reviews and advises on parliamentary boundaries, will present its initial proposals next month and is expected to favour reducing the number of MPs from 650 to 600.
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Any changes will not be finalised until September 2018 at the earliest.
Boundaries are shaken up to try and make all constituencies have a similar population size – with exemptions for the Highlands and Islands.
The reduction in the number of constituencies will leave MPs scrabbling to keep their jobs – and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said for his party this will include them all having to re-apply for their posts.
Launching his leadership campaign last month he said there would be a “full selection process” in every seat before 2020 once a review of constituency boundaries has taken place.
Mrs May has ruled out calling an early election despite the turmoil Labour finds itself in with the majority of Opposition MPs saying they have no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
While there is a proposal to reduce the numbers in the House of Commons, the numbers are increasing in the unelected House of Lords.
After David Cameron’s resignation honours the chamber now has more than 800 members.
Sources suggest Mrs May believes his list was “excessive” and “an unfortunate lapse of judgement”.