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Jeremy Corbyn has 0% chance of winning majority in the next general election, electoral report says

Labour's fortunes are very different from the Tories who have a 77% chance of forming a majority government

Jeremy Corbyn

JEREMY Corbyn’s claims he will win a snap general election have been scuppered by a report which shows his chance of winning is 0%.

His chances of becoming prime minister in a coalition aren’t great either with the analysis by Electoral Calculus (EC) showing Labour has just a 2% chance of governing in coalition with the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Jeremy Corbyn
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Jeremy Corbyn is on the Labour leadership campaign trail and has said he can lead the party to a general election victoryCredit: Reuters
Probability of possible general election outcomes
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The probability of Labour winning a majority at the next general election is not on the chart - because the report says it is 0%Credit: Electoral Calculus
Theresa May
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Theresa May is forecast to do extremely well in the next general election - in part due to boundary changes and voters not backing Jeremy CorbynCredit: Getty Images

And the chance of Labour returning to power with the nationalist parties and the Lib Dems is just 1%.

By comparison, the EC says the Tories have a 77% chance of winning a majority in the next general election – with this expected to be a majority of at least 90 seats.

The political website’s report led to the Labour MP for Haslingden and Hyndburn, Graham Jones, to tweet that party members need to sit up and take note.

And earlier today he tweeted his party can’t win because too many Labour voters won’t support Jeremy Corbyn.

This come just under a fortnight after Mr Corbyn launched his campaign to keep his position as Labour leader, saying: “This party is going places.

“This party is strong.

“This party is capable of winning a general election and if I am leader of the party I will be that prime minister."

The EC analysis says Labour’s lack of success is partly due to Jeremy Corbyn – with opinion polls suggesting the party will get a pasting if he remains leader.

It is also due to proposed changes to constituency boundaries, which are said to favour the Tories.

The Boundary Commission, which reviews and advises on parliamentary boundaries, has not yet announced any changes.

But according to the EC’s calculations, 50 Labour MPs would lose their seats at the next election – when people’s current voting intention and the new boundaries are taken into account.

Nicola Sturgeon
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Electoral Calculus says Labour has just a 2% chance of teaming up with Plaid Cymru and (pictured) Nicola Sturgeon's SNP to form a coalition governmentCredit: PA

Huffington Post reports the EC projected its own boundaries based on previous proposals and updated voter geography.

The Boundary Commission will present its initial proposals next month and is expected to favour reducing the number of MPs from 650 to 600.

Any changes will not be finalised until September 2018 at the earliest.

Boundaries are shaken up to try and make all constituencies have a similar population size – with exemptions for the Highlands and Islands.

 


Do you have a story for The Sun Online news team? Email us at tips@the-sun.co.uk or call 0207 782 4368

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