Pelosi could become ‘Franz Ferdinand’ figure that sparks potential WW3 if China harms her on Taiwan trip, experts warn
NANCY Pelosi could become the 'Franz Ferdinand' figure in a potential World War 3 if she’s harmed by the Chinese military on her trip to Taiwan, experts warn.
The Democrat, 82, has touched down in Taiwan, becoming the first Speaker in 25 years to visit the contested territory.
Beijing views Taiwan as a “renegade” state and President Xi has vowed to take the island back by force if necessary.
For decades, Washington has pursued a strategy of “strategic ambiguity” – where it has persuaded pro-separatist Taiwanese forces not to declare independence while also deterring Beijing not to seize the island by force.
China has vowed to impose a no-fly zone in a bid to scupper her visit and state media propagandists have warned that Pelosi’s jet could be attacked.
Commentator Hu Xijin warned that if US fighter planes escort plane into Taiwan, it's an "invasion".
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He said: “The (People’s Liberation Army) has a right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction.
“If ineffective, then shoot them down.”
No Chinese Government official has said Pelosi's jet would be attacked, but geopolitical expert Brandon Weichert warned the Speaker could become a modern-day Franz Ferdinand if she was harmed.
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in June 1914, which prompted Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia, triggering World War I.
Weichert told The Sun: “Her harm or death would trigger a massive international incident the likes of which has not been seen since 1914.
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“Xi Jinping and Nancy Pelosi hold the world’s fate in their hands. And no one knows what happens next… much like 1914.
“Not since the world wars have the personalities of individual world leaders mattered so much to the historic decisions about to be made.”
Weichert speculated that if Beijing decides to launch an attack against Taiwan, then they will target America’s vulnerable satellites in the region.
He said: “Gone are the days when Beijing could only cower and kowtow to the presence of the US warships in the Taiwan Strait.
“China has mobilized a large force – and deployed their own carriers – to counter the American presence in the region.”
The Chinese ship Yuan Wang 5 is set to dock in Sri Lanka this month and Weichert fears the vessel could be used for military purposes.
The ship is being used for space and satellite tracking and can monitor rockets and missiles that are launched.
Weichert believes China is “actively tracking” American systems and are pinpointing targets on them.
China has long been feared to launch a D-Day style amphibious assault on Taiwan - something which some analysts have dubbed Z-Day.
Destroyer and frigate vessels have been seen lurking off the island and warplanes have buzzed close to the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait.
And chilling footage shared on Chinese social network Weibo appears to show a column of amphibious tanks reportedly massing on beaches in Fujian along the Taiwan Strait.
WAR GAMES
It is also reported China is preparing to send its aircraft carriers to match US deployments in the region, with USS Ronald Reagan and her strike group currently operating near Taiwan.
Beijing views any engagement between Washington and Taiwan's capital Taipei as a US endorsement of the island's independence.
Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying threatened: “The US side will bear the responsibility and pay the price for undermining China’s sovereign security interests.”
Brigadier General Robert Spalding III (Ret). warned that the US has privately accepted that China will take Taiwan.
He told The Sun: “We’ve allowed too much weaponry to be built in that area of the (Taiwan) Strait.
“The fate of Taiwan is a foregone conclusion and officials in Washington accept this privately."
'FOREGONE CONCLUSION'
He predicted that pro-Beijing forces could launch an invasion within five years.
Experts have warned that American air defenses and bases are vulnerable because of the naivety of politicians in Washington DC.
Sam Armstrong, from the Henry Jackson Society, warned that there was a degree of hubris from Western politicians following the end of the Cold War.
He warned that Beijing is developing weapons at such a speed designed to take out enemy vessels.
Weichert said: “The fact it has been 25 years since a US Speaker of the House has gone to Taiwan is an indictment of how badly that Washington has ignored the Indo-Pacific region.
“Since 9/11, the US has been painfully distracted so much so that China has assumed that it is the real dominant power in the region.”
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Claims that China has overtaken the US as the world’s number one superpower are contested, but Spalding believes Washington risks losing an ideological battle, which is being dubbed Cold War 2.0.
Beijing has aspirations to become the world’s dominant superpower by 2049 but Spalding believes that goal has been achieved.
