Theresa May warned leaving EU Customs Union trade bloc could lead to a 4.5 per cent fall in GDP by 2030
The predictions were made in a paper circulated at a meeting of PM's special Brexit cabinet committee outlining the risks
LEAVING the EU Customs Union trade bloc could see UK GDP fall 4.5 per cent, studies say.
The predictions were made in a paper circulated at a meeting of Theresa May’s special Brexit cabinet committee.
But the 4.5 per cent figure, which was quoted before the EU referendum, has been called out of date by Brexit- supporting MPs.
The studies, by the Treasury, the think-tank Nieser, the Centre for Economic Performance and London School of Economics estimated the effect on the British economy if the UK opted for a Norway-style model, according to the Guardian.
The paper on the customs union said that to stand still in trade terms after a withdrawal from the bloc, the UK would need to grow trade with its ten largest partners outside the EU by 37 per cent by 2030.
Despite the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, calling for the UK’s withdrawal at the meeting, Theresa May said she was not ready to make a final decision on the county’s negotiating position.
The EU Customs Union is a trade bloc which consists of all the member states of the EU, Monaco and some no-EU territories of the UK.
No customs are levied on goods travelling within the union and members impose a common external tariff on all goods entering.
But one of the consequences for the UK is that the EU negotiates as a single entity in international trade deals instead of individual member states negotiating for themselves.