Ukraine set to liberate Crimea by next summer in two-pronged blitz in hammer blow to Putin, says ex-US General
UKRAINE could force Russian forces out of the occupied territory of Crimea in a hammer blow to Vladimir Putin, according to an ex-US General.
Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told The Sun Online how the Ukrainians are gathering "irreversible momentum" as they scythe through territory which was seized early in the war by Putin.
With the Russians facing defeat after defeat across the frontline, they are being forced to prop up their dwindling military with hastily mobilised conscripts who are little more than cannon fodder.
General Hodges believes the Kremlin knows the situation is looking grim, so they are desperately trading "bodies for time" as they hope both the West and Ukraine succumb to war fatigue.
But against the highly motivated Ukrainian forces, the pendulum of the conflict will continue to swing away from Putin.
Losing control of Crimea would be an absolute hammer blow to an already weak Putin after he illegally seized the territory back in 2014.
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Widely condemned on the world stage, Vlad moved in mysterious unmarked soldiers to expel the Ukrainian authorities before setting up a sham referendum to force the territory to join Russia.
Crimea was then joined by Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia this year as annexed territory - but already the Ukrainians are pushing back through and reclaiming them.
General Hodges told The Sun Online however said "all roads lead to Crimea" as he boldly predicted the Ukrainians will have taken it back by summer 2023.
Vlad faces utter humiliation if he ends up with the war ending with him actually losing ground to Ukraine.
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General Hodges - who served as the commander of the US Army in Europe - told The Sun Online: "I am confident the Ukrainians will liberate Crimea by next summer."
He went on: "The Ukrainians have achieved irreversible momentum, there is inexorable movement and pressure from the Ukrainians against the Russians.
"And I would say all roads lead to Crimea.";
With the two Ukrainian counter offensives pushing through in the south and the east, these would eventually push towards Crimea.
"If you imagine from the Ukrainian perspective you have the left wing of this offensive coming down from Kharkiv through Donetsk and Luhansk," General Hodges told The Sun Online.
"And then you have the right wing which has been operating very methodically through Kherson."
Kherson is were some the fiercest fighting of the war is, with Ukraine predicting the "heaviest battles" are yet to come around the city which was once home to 300,000.
Russia forces are in withdrawal around the area and evacuating civilians with them - with fears Putin could do something stupid such as blow up a key dam.
Once they get the ability to strike Russian targets in Crimea, then those places become untenable
General Ben Hodges
Taking back control of Kherson would be a key "psychological and morale" boost for the Ukrainians - but it would also be a major victory on the road to Crimea, said General Hodges.
It would then allow them to start bringing US-made HIMARS missiles - which have a firing distance of around 50 miles - into range.
Ukraine could strike key Russian air bases and supply depots to further blunt any attempt by Vlad's troops to fightback.
"Once they get the ability to strike Russian targets in Crimea, then those places become untenable," General Hodges told The Sun Online.
Kherson's liberation would also see the Russians likely have to leave behind a substantial amount of heavy equipment as the Ukrainians have destroyed numerous bridges over the Dnipro River.
Taking control of Kherson and Dnipro river would allow the Ukrainians to take control of the North Crimea Canal which supplies water to occupied Crimea.
And with all this in play, it's very possible that the Ukrainians could seize the land stolen from them eight years ago.
General Hodges believes the Russians are now just trading "bodies for time" as they face a difficult winter in Ukraine.
"The Kremlin is sending conscripts before they are properly equipped, trained and organised," he told The Sun Online.
"The goal is to stretch these things out and hope the West's own problems will lead to them losing the will to continue supporting Ukraine.
"These missiles and drones Putin is launching against cities is all about training to break our will.
"The idea is that somehow people in the West will grow weary of seeing bombed out towns and Russia making cities uninhabitable."
Political scientist Dr Andreas Umland, from Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, also told The Sun Online that he believes Putin's new focus on attacking civilians and infrastructure is a ploy to seek an "enforced peace".
"The aim is now to get Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to get a ceasefire or a peace agreement that Putin can present as a victory at home, said Dr Umland.
"It will be attempting to force Kyiv into a compromise and to end the war as the war itself it not going well for Russia.
He added: "Putin's annexation of the territories has put into a deadlock - earlier in the war you could have imagined a Russian withdrawal in which they just claimed they had 'won'.
"Now they have these annexations, it's all or nothing for him. Putin has to win this somehow."
And that is proving extremely difficult as Russia's army has proved itself to be very ineffective on the battlefield - despite supposed being one the largest and best equipped in the world.
General Hodges admitted he "overestimated" the ability of the Russians - saying so much of their failures is simply down to rampant corruption.
"The Russians will do what it takes, they will find ways to adapt to their many shortcomings - but their problems are so deep rooted in their culture," he told The Sun Online.
Putin’s commanders believed they could roll over Ukraine in a matter of days – but now the war has been raging for eight months.
They convinced Russia troops they would be greeted with cheers and waving flags as “liberators”, instead, they were faced with Kalashnikovs and Molotov cocktails as invaders.
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Vlad’s war has become a slow and brutal quagmire – one which has seen the Russians change tactics, moving from attempts at surgical strikes to savage, indiscriminate attacks on civilians.
With further defeats on the horizon, a seemingly hopeless mass mobilisation, and a resurgent Ukraine storming towards their new “territory” – fears are growing the war could escalate once again.
