The latest slaughter of Russians is a tale of Putin’s incompetence – he’s become the new Joseph Stalin
SOVIET monster Joseph Stalin, who killed around ten million people, reportedly quipped: “The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic.”
As heir to that murderous legacy, despot Vladimir Putin, might wonder what his numbers say.
Take the latest slaughter. It is a story of callous incompetence.
At least 89 Russian soldiers were killed as Ukraine’s new long-range US rockets blitzed their temporary barracks in occupied Donbas.
The real toll is likely to be far higher. Ukraine says 400 died. Well-informed Russian bloggers claim “many hundreds” were either slain or maimed in the New Year’s Day attack.
The deaths have sparked fury in Russia.
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Why were so many soldiers packed into one place, so close to the frontline?
Why were they next to an ammo dump which was ignited by the blasts? Why did they have their mobile phones and why were they allowed to use them if, as the Russia’s Defence Ministry claims, it gave away their position?
The answer is that Russia’s commanders are either unwilling to learn or unable to implement lessons from last year’s bloodbaths.
Or perhaps they simply don’t care about the lives of the men they lead.
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Cannon fodder
Certainly the Russian prisoners of war I met in a jail last year had nothing but contempt for their leaders who they described as jackals.
Or could it be that Russia’s armed forces have been so thoroughly eviscerated in the field that there isn’t a cadre left to lead.
Take another statistic. According to open source analysts some 1,600 Russian officers have been killed since the start of the war.
Much of the world’s attention has focused on the 10 generals who were mostly killed through clever and deliberate targeting by Ukraine’s armed forces.
Less attention has gone to the 840 captains and senior lieutenants – the tactical level commanders – who have also lost their lives.
Add this to the toll of wounded and Russia has likely lost “half of all competent ground-fighting company commanders” in Ukraine, according to the US-based CEPA think tank.
Leaderless troops are cannon fodder. The latest official estimate from Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s Chief of Defence Staff, is that some 100,000 Russians have been killed, wounded or deserted since the start of Putin’s botched invasion.
To put that in perspective, Russia lost 15,000 men in a ten year war in Afghanistan.
This time last year, on the eve of Putin’s bloodbath invasion, his generals had almost every advantage they could hope for.
A bigger and better equipped armed forces was backed by a bigger economy to crush its smaller neighbour.
But within a few weeks his cumbersome force had been smashed on the rocks of Ukraine’s resistance.
Nimble and fierce Ukraine defenders had used small unit tactics to harass and defeat the juggernaut column bearing down on Kyiv.
When the west gave Ukraine more longer-range weapons they hammered Russian supply lines and depots which led to a series of stunning collapses, first in Kharkiv in the east and then in Kherson in the south.
The defeats forced Russia to switch tactics.
We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat.
President Zelensky
Wave after wave of missile and drone strikes have hammered Ukraine’s power grid in a desperate bid to crush morale.
The lights can go out in Kyiv but the will to fight is undimmed.
What Russia sorely lacked last February – and continues to lack to this day – is what Ukraine has found in spades: Morale.
Its heroic defenders are protecting their homes, their land and their families.
They are spurred on by their own survival and a steady stream of hard won victories.
But so far they have won battles. They have not won the war.
Western officials are adamant that Russia is running out of key weapons.
It is increasingly relying on Iranian kamikaze drones. The US accused North Korea of trying to smuggle artillery shells to Russia.
Yet for all the Russian losses, one thing Russia has plenty is people.
And Putin’s ruthless generals have shown they are more than willing to waste their lives.
Describing the fiercest fighting around the meat-grinder town of Bakhmut the commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said: “The Russians are basically trying to advance by marching over the corpses of their fellow soldiers.”
Putin has already mobilised 300,000 reserves to backfill battlefield losses.
Ukraine expects him to mobilise more ahead of fresh offensives in the spring.
Those are the sort of statistics which could undo Putin’s support at home – as the horrors of his so-called Special Military Operation touch more and more people’s lives.
So far most of the call-ups have come from far flung Russian provinces where grieving mothers and wives are unable to sway the Tsars in Moscow.
President Zelensky warned: “We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat.”
But he also told Rishi Sunak on Tuesday that “it is possible to achieve a pivotal advantage right now” with the right kind of support, which Britain has vowed to give.
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He is rightly convinced Ukraine can win, as long his allies remain steadfast.
But Ukraine’s victory will come at a cost. It is an awful cost of lives on all sides that will be tyrant Putin’s most tragic statistic.
IN NUMBERS
- 100k: Russians killed or wounded in one year in Ukraine
- 15k: Russians killed in 10 years in Afghanistan
- 10m: people killed by Josef Stalin