Will Brexit happen following the Article 50 High Court ruling and House of Lords revolt? What we know so far and what could happen
PRIME Minister Theresa May announced shortly after her appointment that she wanted to start the Brexit process by the end of March this year.
But she's been faced with a series of setbacks, including a High Court decision in which judges ruled the government needs parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50.
And now rebellious Lords have forced through an amendment to Article 50 which means it must be sent back to the Commons, delaying the process further.
What's happened since the EU referendum?
The Prime Minister had wanted to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - the formal process of leaving the European Union - by the end of March 2017, but her plan went into disarray after Lord Chief Justice said Parliament should decide when it is triggered.
Investment manager and EU-based campaigner Gina Miller threw May's plans into chaos after she brought a landmark legal case before the High Court, insisting Article 50 is a major breach of Britain’s constitution.
A panel led by the Lord Chief Justice said the PM “does not have the power” to trigger Article 50 herself and instead ordered her to get permission from Parliament before she can formally start the process.
Prime Minister Theresa May had hoped the outcome of the referendum would mean she could bypass Parliament when it came to invoking the bill.
The Government announced it would appeal the decision that was slammed as a “humiliation” for the Prime Minister.
It was heard before the highest judicial body, the Supreme Court, in December last year and their announcement was made in January this year.
The most superior judges in the land decided to uphold the High Court's decision, stating an Act of Parliament was required to invoke Article 50, in another blow to May's plans.
The Supreme Court also ruled that devolved legislatures in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have no legal right to veto the act.
The Bill was passed by MPs in the House of Commons without any amendments, but hit choppy waters when it reached the second chamber the House of Lords.
The Lord have backed two amendments to the Bill - one guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and another demanding that Parliament will get a second vote on Brexit after negotiations.
The PM had reportedly hoped to invoke Article 50 at an EU summit on March 9 and 10, but cannot do so until the Bill has been passed by both houses.
The UK wants to avoid enacting it towards the end of the month as this marks the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, effectively the birth of the EU.
What is the Article 50 bill?
The Article 50 bill is also known as the European Union Notification of Withdrawal Bill 2017.
It would give the Prime Minister the power to give the European Union formal notice to start Britain's negotiations for leaving.
The bill was first read in Parliament on January 26 and later allocated for a second reading debate on February 1.
At a third reading it was passed by 498 votes to 114 and sent for debate in the House of Lords.
On March 1, Labour, Lib Dem and seven Tory peers sparked fury by joining forces to insist the PM guarantees the rights of 3.2 million EU citizens in Britain now to stay on after our exit.
May insisted she wants to make the promise, but only when the same is offered to our citizens on the continent in exchange.
But the upper house forced through an amendment to the law authorising the start of Brexit talks, by 358 votes to 256.
That sparked a major constitutional stand-off, as the traditionally the Lords never challenges a bill that has not been amended by the Commons.
On March 7, the Lords passed another amendment which would force the Government to give MPs a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal before withdrawal from the EU.
366 peers, including 13 Tories, voted in favour of the amendment - including former Tory Chancellor Michael Heseltine, who was sacked as a Government adviser after rebelling.
It's then expected to be sent back to the House of Commons mid-March for a third reading, but this could cause the PM to miss her aim of triggering Article 50 at the next EU summit on March 9.
Will Theresa May push ahead with Article 50?
The Prime Minister has vowed to push ahead with Brexit despite the House of Lords amendment.
The alteration means May would be forced to make a commitment not to kick out the three million EU nationals currently in the UK once we quit the trading bloc, regardless of any deal we get.
It also means that Parliament must get another vote on whether to go ahead with Brexit after negotiations are completed and deals are confirmed.
The Government has vowed to overturn the amendments when the Bill "ping-pongs" back to the Commons.
A spokesman for the Brexit Department said: "The Bill has a straightforward purpose - to enact the referendum result and allow the Government to get on with the negotiations."
“Our position on EU nationals has repeatedly been made clear. We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals living in other member states, as early as we can.”
What happens if Article 50 is not invoked?
Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon explains the deadlines and processes that would govern a country leaving the EU.
It must be invoked to begin the official process of leaving the EU.
But after High Court judges ruled MPs must vote on it, many are now questioning whether it will ever be triggered.
The saga has rumbled on since Brits voted in favour of leaving the European Union in June.
EU diplomats believe the tight deadline for talks has put the UK in a weak position.
If Article 50 is not invoked, but it is not cancelled, then Britain will still be paying to in the EU and abiding by its rules - with very little power to change anything.
The former UK diplomat who wrote Article 50 says legally Brexit could still be cancelled - even after it has been invoked.
What is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
The Lisbon Treaty came into force on December 1 2009 as the culmination of the EU's eight year quest to make the organisation "more democratic, more transparent and more efficient".
It set out a number of rules and posts including the introduction of the EU Presidency, redistribution of voting weights of member states and Article 50.
Article 50 states: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."
It then goes on to say that a state wishing to withdraw will let the European Council know it intends to leave which will "trigger" the article.
At this point the Treaties that bound Britain to EU rules cease to apply and the terms of leaving will begin to be negotiated..
What are the chances of an early general election?
Still small, at the moment anyway.
Some Tories are doing a bit of sabre rattling, but the truth is both the Tory and Labour high commands want one like a hole in the head because the risks are just too high.
Jeremy Corbyn knows his ranks could be decimated, and Theresa May knows it would split her party down the middle between Remainers and Leavers.
She also wants to get the boundary changes through in 2018 to give the Tories another 25 more seats, plus save up the option of going to the country when she really needs if she can’t get her finished negotiation past Parliament in 2019.
The Brexit legal challenge: Who gets to trigger Article 50?
Here is all you need to know about the bombshell decision to give MPs a say before the process of leaving the EU begins:
What happens next?
The government has announced it will appeal, with the Supreme Court sitting in full for the first time since it was created in 2009.
This means at least nine justices, possibly 11, will pore over the case.
Those judges will under pressure to deliver a final decision possibly before the end of the year, with a provisional date in early December pencilled in.
Lawyers say it could conceivably be further appealed to the European Court of Justice, but that this is highly unlikely.
What will Theresa May be thinking after judges rule against the government?
The Prime Minister may not be in a position to trigger Article 50 by the end of March as planned. MPs will now have the choice to approve the bill, reject it or pass it with amendments.
The best case for the government would be to avoid primary legislation and involve parliament through a substantive motion — a proposal put forward for debate and a vote.
This would be a quicker process and could be done early next year. Legislation would take longer as it involves various stages of debate and approval.
The House of Commons is thought to be unlikely to try to stop Brexit, but a cross-party group of lawmakers, who support a “soft Brexit”, whereby Britain stays in or remains close to the EU single market, have demanded a greater say for parliament in negotiations and say they might try to pass amendments that guarantee this.
Who took the challenge to the High Court?
The lead claimant is investment fund manager Gina Miller with hairdresser Deir Tozetti Dos Santos, the second claimant.
Other interested parties involved in the case include “The People’s Challenge”, featuring an Englishman of Bangladeshi origin, an Irishman, two Scotsmen resident in France, a Welshman and a Gibraltarian, whose wife is Spanish; another group of British expatriates; and British children of EU nationals and non-EU carers of British children or the disabled.
What did they argue?
The claimants always argued the case is not about trying to either stop or delay Brexit.
They say that if this decision is taken by the government alone, Britons will lose these EU rights which have been incorporated into domestic law through acts parliament, without parliament having any involvement.
They believe that the referendum was only advisory and gave no indication on when and on what terms Britain should leave.
And because the Article 50 process is irreversible, they argue that issues such as the right to vote in European parliament elections and free movement of people should be a matter for parliament.
