I’m a poll expert – Nicola Sturgeon’s exit could give Sir Keir Starmer 25 seats and keys to No10
THERE has been much rejoicing among Tory and Labour MPs at Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to stand down as SNP leader.
And no wonder.
Under her watch the SNP have come to dominate politics north of the border.
After many decades of being effectively a Labour citadel, Scotland is now solidly SNP, making it far harder for Labour to win a general election and form a government in Westminster.
And Scottish Tory MPs remain a rare breed.
Meanwhile, during her eight years as First Minister, Ms Sturgeon has persistently been tugging at the strings of the union between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
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It is an indication of her skills as one of Britain’s best political communicators that both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer think her withdrawal from front-line politics creates opportunities for them.
A Herculean task
But it looks like it is the Labour Party that has most to gain from her shock resignation — while it should ring alarm bells for Mr Sunak.
Labour have been making gains in the polls north of the border, but they are still 15 points behind the SNP, who are on 44 points.
If voters don’t budge then that could mean Labour pick up just three more seats in Scotland to add to their single MP at the moment, taking their total to just four.
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This would be a disappointment for Sir Keir, who would be left with the Herculean task of trying to win a Westminster majority by chalking up a massive poll lead over the Tories in England and Wales instead.
BUT if there is just a five per cent swing from the SNP, Labour could get 16 Scottish MPs.
And if Labour closes the gap on the SNP entirely, it could get 25 Scottish seats.
That would mean Sir Keir could win an overall majority at a general election with just half the UK-wide poll lead he needs at the moment.
But will Labour’s offer of more devolution and the prospects of a UK government that is less confrontational in its dealings with the Scottish Government be enough to tempt SNP supporters to make the switch?
For Rishi Sunak, a decline in SNP support could prove a DOUBLE-edged sword.
It would help the Conservatives defend their existing six Scottish MPs, all of whom are vulnerable to the SNP.
As Theresa May discovered in 2017, if the Britain-wide election is close, then even a small clutch of Scottish seats could make all the difference as to who gets the keys to No 10.
And Mr Sunak would be able to seize on any fall in support for independence as a major victory for him, as a PM who has successfully fended off the nationalist threat to the union of the United Kingdom.
But winning seats in Scotland is far harder for the Conservatives than Labour.
This is because the Tories can only really get the backing of opponents of independence.
They are unlikely to win over many SNP defectors.
And Mr Sunak will not welcome a collapse in SNP support if it helps clear Sir Keir’s path to No 10.
Maybe Tory MPs at least should keep the champagne in ice.
Ms Sturgeon’s departure from frontline politics also creates major challenges for the SNP, who do not have an obvious successor.
Kate Forbes, a 32-year-old Cambridge-educated Gaelic speaker and currently Scotland’s Finance Secretary, has been tipped as a potential successor ever since she successfully stepped up to deliver a budget at just 24 hours’ notice.
But her impressive performances in the parliamentary chamber have not as yet been matched with a proven ability to reach out to the ordinary voter.
As leader of the SNP group for ten years, 53-year-old Angus Robertson was once a familiar face at Westminster — until he lost his Moray seat to the Tories in 2017.
An experienced broadcaster, he is now Ms Sturgeon’s Constitution Secretary at Holyrood.
But he has not had much success in getting the campaign for independence off the ground.
Humza Yousaf would be the first person from an ethnic minority background to become First Minister.
Despite still only being 37, he already has 12 years as an MSP behind him.
Articulate and able, he has, however, had the misfortune to be Scotland’s Health Secretary when the NHS has been struggling to recover from the Covid pandemic.
That has led the opposition to question his competence.
Whirlwind of debates
Still, now they are no longer having to operate in Ms Sturgeon’s slipstream, all the contenders will get the chance to demonstrate they do have the power to persuade.
Tory and Labour MPs are betting that none of them will succeed and that, as a result, support for the SNP and for independence will fall.
Over the next five weeks the SNP will embark on a febrile mission to appoint their next leader.
Expect a whirlwind of debates, visits and intense policy discussion as the party works out which of their number has the charisma and experience to step into Ms Sturgeon’s shoes.
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These coming weeks will have profound implications, not just for the SNP, but for Labour, the Tories and the fate of the independence movement — and union — for many years to come.
- John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow, NatCen Social Research and UK In A Changing Europe.