How Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine has left him facing coup & his dream of new Soviet Union in tatters
VLADIMIR Putin's disastrous war has been raging for one year - and he is being left increasingly isolated and near friendless.
Experts told The Sun Online how his former allies are now distancing themselves from the mad tyrant - despite Mad Vlad's dream of one day building a new Soviet Union.
Vlad had been trying to cosy up to many of his neighbours as he built tried to expand Russia's power - but since his invasion of Ukraine his nation has become a pariah state.
The power-hungry leader has previously referred to the collapse of the USSR as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century".
And he made it his mission to create some kind of "New Soviet Union" as he seeked to increase Russia's power to face up to the West.
But his massive misstep with the war in Ukraine has seen much of his influence wane - and even his staunchest allies are thinking twice before stepping up to help Vlad.
READ MORE ON RUSSIA
Experts explained The Sun Online how Putin is losing grip on many former Soviet nations in his sphere of influence - such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Moldova is also pulling away from Russia - with warnings this week that Vlad could attempt to seize the breakaway region of Transnistria, which borders Ukraine.
Putin is also facing internal pressure at home - with various reports saying he could even face a coup unless he finds some success on Ukraine.
And there have been rumours that some of his allies - including Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and "General Armaggedon" Sergey Surovikin - could seek to oust him.
Most read in The Sun
Vlad's speech earlier this week was seen as stamping his authority as the "sole saviour" of Russia - potentially trying to put off any coup plotters.
Putin is believed to be under pressure - with little success to show for 12 months of fighting in Ukraine.
Former MI6 boss Sir Richard Dearlove previously told The Sun Online how Putin could come to a "violent sudden end" - but noted the mechanisms for political change in Russia are "fragile".
And former Nato commander Sir James Everard told us that Putin is "in trouble" as he's surrounded by an inner circle plotting against him over his failures in Ukraine.
But adding his problems - are his formerly reliable international allies who are becoming distant from him.
Many former Soviet countries have kept some ties to Russia for trade benefits and security reasons - while others have instead chosen to align themselves with the West.
Dr. Albert Bininachvili told The Sun Online that Putin's war - which has seen nearly 150,000 of his troops die - really has left him "friendless".
Putin engages in a policy known as "revanchism" - which essentially means regaining lost territories.
It is exactly what Putin is doing in Ukraine - and it is what he may like to do in the other former Soviet nations surrounding Russia.
Dr Bininachvili explained that Kazakhstan has been a unique country to watch as the war in Ukraine unfolds.
Kazakhstan is a vital relationship for Putin, as the neighbouring country is regarded as Russia's closest ally after Belarus - which is essentially a puppet state.
“The President has taken a stance opposite Russia, and openly challenges Moscow," Dr Bininachvili, an expert on Central Asia, told The Sun Online,
"Kazakhstan wants to stay in line with the UN, in line with international law, which is seen as a direct challenge to Moscow.
He cited a meeting between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan where both presidents opted to speak in their native tongue - despite both leaders knowing the Russian language.
This action sent a strong signal to Moscow, as two of their closest allies and ex-Soviet states put their foot down.
Dr. Bininachvili also pointed out all other post-Soviet states, including Russian ally Belarus, refuse to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk as well as the breakaway territories of Georgia.
He said: “It is quite evident that Putin's disastrous war in Ukraine and his aggressive revanchist policies aimed at restoration of Moscow's control over the former Soviet space has left him friendless, but it will take time before ex-Soviet pals turn on him.
“They are very careful not to make a faux pas and prefer to wait until some decisive points are reached on the frontline before they show their cards.”
But Russia must tread carefully, Dr. Bininachvili warns - China is a major stakeholder in Kazakh oil, and any actions against them by Vlad could be seen as aggression towards China as well.
Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, told The Sun Online that Putin’s relations with ex-soviet areas vary greatly from country to country.
Citing Baltic countries in particular, he said: “The strategic goal of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia is to distance themselves from Russian influence as much as possible.
“The invasion of Ukraine initiated by Putin has only confirmed the constant calls of the Baltic countries not to trust Russia, because it is a revanchist and aggressive state that breaks international norms.”
Dr. Janeliūnas, from Lithuania, said his country cannot have any “normal cooperation” with Putin’s Russia, calling it an authoritarian regime looking to restore the Soviet Union.
He continued: “The war in Ukraine further weakens Russia's influence over some of its former allies.”
Moldova meanwhile has accused Russia of staging "psy-ops"; to attempt to destabilise their nation.
"Some wanted our country to fall and to install a puppet government enslaved to the interests of the Kremlin," said Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
One former Soviet country which has become a lapdog to Putin is Belarus - after Putin propped up President Alexander Lukashenko's government.
The two allies have reportedly been conducting joint military drills in recent months.
And it's been reported that Russia could be preparing to totally absorb Belarus by 2030.
Last week, Lukashenko said: "I'm ready to wage war, alongside the Russians, from the territory of Belarus.
"But only if someone - even a single soldier - enters our territory from Ukraine with weapons to kill my people."
The first anniversary of Russia's invasion into Ukraine has launched new fears of a bloody onslaught by Putin's troops.
And this week kicked off with duelling speeches by Vlad and US President Joe Biden - who made a historic visit to Ukraine.
Putin used his rambling speech to double down on blaming the West for his war, while Biden attempted to rally around support for Kyiv.
Putin's future is now seen as tied to his success or failure.
Moscow still controls one-fifth of Ukraine but has seen major battlefield defeats and hopes of a quick victory dashed.
Vlad is desperate to win to save himself - and sees the war as part of a wider conflict with the West.
Britain, the US, and other Western nations are all supporting Ukraine with weapons and supplies.
And the conflict has seen relations between the West and Russia hit lows not seen since the Cold War.
Russia expected to be welcomed as conquering liberators when they staged their invasion nearly one year ago.
But instead of flags and cheering crowds, they were met with gunfire and brave resistance.
READ MORE SUN STORIES
Putin is facing internal political pressure with the anniversary now just days away - and very little to show for the vast expenditure of blood and treasure.
It is believed that if Putin continues to fail in the war, his regime could collapse - and it could have dire consequences for Russia.
