The next General Election won’t be like 1992 – but Keir Starmer’s position might be close to David Cameron’s in 2010
LABOUR says it is delighted at the uproar caused by its claims that Rishi Sunak wants to go easy on paedophiles – but I smell panic.
The party is expected to win big at the next General Election but the attack ads suggest strategists fear it can’t.
They are a sign of weakness, not strength.
As a cover, they are telling anyone who will listen that the resulting controversy and condemnation was part of a cunning plan, boosting the story and ensuring millions get the message.
That’s nonsense for several reasons. For a start, it takes us all for fools.
Just saying Sunak supports paedophiles and armed robbers doesn’t make anyone believe it’s so.
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Not only does it surrender the moral high ground, most importantly it’s a knee-jerk reaction to their own failing strategy.
To understand why, we need to go back to the cataclysmic moment when Liz Truss was forced out as PM.
After the havoc caused by her disastrous mini-Budget, Rishi Sunak was about to become the fifth Tory Prime Minister in six years.
The court of public opinion was in session and the verdict was in: the Tories were guilty as charged.
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Labour’s poll ratings rocketed, and many assumed all they had to do to romp home at the next election was look vaguely sensible.
Believing this, Labour’s strategy was to depict Rishi Sunak as the fag end of a series of failed administrations.
Every week at PMQs you would hear Keir Starmer suggest he was weak and – not too subtly – that the job was too big for him.
But as winter turns to spring, there have been signs that approach isn’t working.
Focus groups for both parties report that Sunak’s successes are coming up spontaneously and he is increasingly seen as an asset, not a liability.
Meanwhile, people aren’t entirely sure who or what Labour is for.
Ask people if they think it’s time for a change from the Conservatives, and a big majority say yes.
Ask them if that change should be to the party that not so long ago wanted us to believe Jeremy Corbyn should be our next PM and the numbers aren’t nearly so convincing.
And that’s why Labour panicked.
Having underestimated Sunak, they now see him as a threat.
They’ve ditched their original strategy and replaced it with absurd claims he is pro-criminal.
That panic was caused in part by a game that’s being played by everyone at Westminster.
It might not be your idea of fun, but political anoraks delight in asking which year the next General Election is most likely to resemble.
A few weeks ago, you couldn’t go anywhere without somebody asking if you thought the result would be like 1997 or 1992.
What they meant was, “Do you think Labour is on the way to a Tony Blair-style landslide victory or might Rishi Sunak defy expectations and sneak a win, like John Major?”
After a bit of thought, most people rejected both outcomes.
Even if Starmer gains the vast number of seats Blair did in ’97, he’d only have a majority of one.
So, a Labour landslide isn’t probable. It’s also possible Sunak could turn things around in this incredibly volatile environment – we’ve become used to unexpected events changing everything – but it’s still a long shot.
That leads pollsters to suggest a more likely outcome might be what happened in 1964, a very small Labour majority after 13 years of Tory government.
Another possibility is a return to February 1974, with Labour just falling short and having to go to the country again a few months later.
Both results point to instability and uncertainty.
Others wonder if Keir Starmer’s position might be closer to David Cameron’s in 2010.
Two years before that election, my former boss enjoyed huge leads of more than 20 per cent in the polls.
More than three-quarters of people said it was time for a change – but there was still huge uncertainty about whether the Tories could be trusted.
Yet they ended up on a vote share of 37 per cent and in a coalition government.
It was a great result in many ways, making huge gains of nearly 100 seats. But they failed to reassure enough people.
Remind you of anyone?
Recent history suggests trying to predict the outcome of an election still a year away is a mug’s game.
The sensible answer is: it won’t be 1992, 1997 or any of the other years mentioned – it will be 2024.
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What we can say, after months of people thinking all Labour had to do to win was to turn up, is they are now rattled, and their latest strategy is a dud.
- Craig Oliver was No10 Director of Politics and Communications under David Cameron 2011-2016. He now presents the Desperately Seeking Wisdom podcast.