Could lack of wind have caused Brexit? New study shows blustery weather encourages the status quo
Increases in wind speech enhance the chances that people will vote in favour of safe, risk-averse parties and outcomes, but June vote was a calm day
LOWER wind speeds increase the chance of the public voting for change, a new study has shown.
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and Columbia Business School have found that increases in wind speeds enhanced the chances that people would vote in favour of low-risk, safe options, and the continuation of the status-quo.
Scottish independence referendum and 100 years of US Presidential elections supported the theory that individuals were more likely to vote for change if the weather was calmer.
Previous research has found that the weather can impact on a range of choices, from what people think about climate change, to whether they will enrol at a university.
Rain on election day is also thought to reduce turnout as fewer people want to queue in the rain to cast their ballot. Floods closed some polling stations during the EU referendum this year, prompting fears over the turnout.
On UK polling days, researchers sourced data from multiple location points across the country.
It showed that councils with higher levels of wind speech had a higher likelihood to vote to Remain in the EU. The same result was found in the Scottish referendum - councils with higher wind speeds were more likely to vote No to independence.
High levels of wind did not show that people were less likely to turn out, however.
The wind was only likely to affect around 1% of decisions, but in close races like the referendum, it could have made all the difference.
The model only works with a choice between a "prevention option" which emphasised the risks and losses of picking a side, the so-called ";Project Fear" of the Remain campaign, and a "promotion-option" which highlighted the gains and benefits of it, like Vote Leave.
From a rational point of view, voters shouldn't be swayed by something so simple as the weather, the researchers said.
But "it is important to acknowledge that people are influenced not only by the political stances of parties and interest groups, but also by the environment in which those stances are scrutinized and put to a decision," the report concluded.