When Keir Starmer shows people what he really thinks, he wins over some voters but loses others
AS his whistle-stop tour of the Middle East ended last Friday, Rishi Sunak must have been tempted by the offer of a cigarette from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at Cairo airport.
A gruelling diplomatic slog won the Prime Minister international plaudits, yet not a dent in the polls.
And back home, the war was just beginning for Sir Keir Starmer.
When Hamas’s horror was unleashed on Israel’s southern border three weeks ago, wiser Labour hands knew a headache was brewing for their PM-in-waiting.
Desperate to banish the ghost of Hamas’s “friend” Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir was quick to take a resolutely pro-Israel line on the crisis. But it quickly became clear that the wider Labour Party is taking a little more time.
While Sunak has used the crisis to jump at the chance to flex his hitherto limited foreign policy credentials, a full-blown crisis has emerged for Starmer.
READ MORE ON KEIR STARMER
One in four of his MPs are now openly thumbing their noses at him and calling for a full ceasefire in the Middle East.
‘Left is stirring it up’
Since taking charge in April 2020, Sir Keir’s crusade to banish Corbyn-era anti-Semitism has seen the cranks expelled and unwavering support for British Jews from the top of the party.
Yet three years of dogged detoxification almost blew up in his face when a laser-like backing for Israel saw him defend the country’s right to cut off fuel and water supplies to the bombed-out Gaza Strip.
This misstep — combined with his reluctance to back a ceasefire — was dynamite for vengeful left-wingers who quickly tabled a rebellious Commons motion demanding a “cessation of hostilities”.
Most read in The Sun
One Labour figure said: “The Left is stirring it up. But there’s a wider problem — the relationship with our Muslim supporters is now in a really bad place.”
The 2021 census shows the top 20 seats in Britain with the highest number of Muslims — a handful with more than 55 to 60 per cent — are all held by Labour.
MPs’ postbags are heaving with criticism, while some even claiming they faced direct security threats over the party’s position. Some Muslim councillors have even told of being branded “traitors” for toeing the Starmer line.
No10 has been quick to say any call for a ceasefire would only help the terrorist butchers who run Gaza — and continue to pummel Israel with rockets.
So Starmer knows he cannot flinch in the face of this growing party mutiny.
Yet the Labour chief is engulfed in the biggest crisis of his leadership so far — as two of the biggest beasts in his party went to war over his pro-Israel stance.
Muslim London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Muslim Scottish leader Anas Sarwar are both now at odds with his line — and they are backed by hundreds of councillors and scores of Labour MPs.
And Andy Burnham — the Manchester Mayor who hardly hides his leadership ambitions — jumped on the bandwagon late on Friday.
Starmer allies made clear they will hold the line. Yet the strategy is precarious: Too pro-Israel and the Labour chief risks losing millions of Muslim voters, or soften the stance and he opens himself up to attacks as Corbyn reincarnate.
Starmer decided to dodge the massive geopolitical storm at this week’s PMQs — but No10 is very keen to talk about it.
Sunak met six leaders in a breathless diplomatic three-day sprint across the Middle East last week — and Downing Street still feels he is not getting enough credit for the push.
Landing in Cyprus last week on just 2½ hours sleep, Sunak was quickly into a day of intense talks with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog.
Security bundled him into a bomb-proof car amid warnings of incoming rocket fire.
Next it was on to Saudi Arabia — catching up on sleep with a 30-minute kip — to meet the controversial but crucial Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
After discussions with the Qatari emir in Riyadh on Friday morning, the PM jetted to Cairo to meet Egyptian president Fattah El-Sisi and Palestinian leader Abbas, who sparked up a fag halfway through their chinwag.
Yet to the increasing frustration of No10, Starmer’s local difficulties and the PM’s global efforts are yet to improve the polls — with the trip interrupted so the PM could be briefed on the double by-election blow back home while still in the desert.
There is an increasingly disheartened mood in Downing Street that while they see their man stepping up on the world stage as well as trying to make bold strokes at home, nothing seems to be moving the numbers.
There is also a growing fear among some ministers and Tory MPs that the PM is falling into a classic trapping of office.
He would not be the first premier to ignore mounting problems at home — by-election defeats, a colleague arrested for rape and little economic cheer — by burying himself in the global picture.
Glimmer of hope
Labour are now back to a consistent 20 point poll lead, and some wonder whether Sunak spending all of next week talking about Artificial Intelligence at a global summit he is hosting here will do anything to change that.
Yet could there be a glimmer of hope?
It appears Starmer’s strategy of not saying very much has peaked.
Polling for More In Common shows 53 per cent of people haven’t the foggiest idea what he really stands for.
Experts are now suggesting Sir Keir has hit the limit of his appeal that Labour is “not the Tories” and now needs to show the country what he would do in charge.
Pollster Luke Tryl says: “While Labour enjoys a big poll lead and is winning by-elections, there is no doubt that this is driven by dislike of the Tories rather than enthusiasm for Labour.”
READ MORE SUN STORIES
The catch-22 Starmer finds himself in, however, is that when he tends to show people what he really thinks — be it on Israel or Europe — he wins over some voters but loses others.
If Sunak has any hope of turning things around, he needs to focus on both the borders abroad and the dividing lines back at home.
