From cutting taxes to securing our borders, five missions facing Rishi Sunak in 2024

JUST over 16 years ago a Prime Minister let election speculation get out of control.

In summer 2007, the only chat in Westminster was would Gordon Brown go to the country early to wrong-foot the opposition?

In the end he bottled it, and the Tories have not let Labour forget it to this day.

For weeks they trailed after the PM with party aides dressed in giant “Bottler Brown Ale” suits, and the one-time Iron Chancellor’s decisive reputation never recovered.

Now Labour want revenge.

As Parliament broke up for Christmas and ministers mingled over cheap fizz and dodgy mince pies, the conversation was exactly the same.

Are we heading for a May election?

And, after the threat of an early poll was dangled in front of rebel Tory MPs last week in order to ram the Rwanda bill through the Commons, there is a danger of speculation getting out of control once again.

Brand him ‘Chicken Sunak’

While there are some in No10 pushing to go early, the consensus around those closest to the PM is still to wait for the autumn.

The logic is well worn; use whacking-great tax receipts from years of stealth taxes for another giveaway at the Budget — with changes to income tax, inheritance tax and stamp duty all war-gamed.

With inflation falling, hopes are growing of mortgage rates coming down over the summer, with a “don’t let big spending, borrowing and tax-loving Labour ruin the recovery” campaign planned ahead of an October ballot.

Strategists are pinning hopes on winning back around a fifth of voters who say they definitely will vote next year, but are yet to make up their minds.

They are buoyed by green shoots in the polling data starting to show some credit for the Government for inflation falling, with fears over Labour’s borrowing plans starting to flash red in voters minds.

They point to a growing scepticism over Sir Keir Starmer’s and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s promise to get debt falling — while at the same time borrow an extra £28billion, protect all spending and not raise tax.

Can that really be credible, voters are asking.

Add to that some banging of the drum on key issues such as defence and national security — as well as a brutal filleting of Starmer’s record as a lawyer that saw him defend every type of terrorist from Ireland to Islamabad — and you see the makings of a strategy for the Tories to turn the tide over the next ten months.

Which makes it all the more important that Rishi does not fall into the “bottler” trap.

Labour are doing all they can to talk up a spring election, even ordering a manifesto to be written by March.

They are desperate to pounce if the PM does go long and brand him Chicken Sunak, running away from the electorate and desperate to cling on to the trappings of power for as long as possible.

Which is why Cabinet ministers want the PM to dampen any talk of an early poll when he returns to No10 from Yorkshire, where he will be spending a few days over Christmas.

There is also another reason to pour a bucket of cold water on the talk of May: It could trigger an attempt to topple Rishi by MPs disgruntled by the sacking of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and the PM’s general direction of travel.

There is a small but growing plot being pushed by the right to move against Sunak in the New Year.

And when the Rwanda bill returns to the Commons in the third week of January, it risks becoming a moment of high danger for Downing Street.

For some, taking back full control of our borders is an article of faith — and they do not think the PM’s talk of limited amendments will go anywhere near enough to address their concerns.

But others on the right see Rwanda as the means to get rid of Rishi so they can take control of the party and shape it in their own image.

They fear a total wipeout of the Tories at the general election would see a dramatic shift to the left, given the surviving rump of MPs in the safer southern seats would be dominated by One Nation moderates.

Rebels playing with fire

Which means that, if they are going to grab control of the party, it has to be before an election defeat, not after.

And all the talk of an early election is only making them panic more.

Rebels whisper that the Tory poll rating has hit rock bottom.

Can it go any lower they ask, pointing to a chunk of about 25 per cent of the population who seem to vote Conservative come what may?

“Anyone new would get some sort of bounce,” one agitator insists.

But with a resurgent Nigel Farage also eyeing a New Year return to the political fray, Tory veterans warn that the rebels are playing with fire.

When Farage was at his peak at the 2019 European Elections, the Tories plummeted to just nine per cent, their lowest ever result in a nationwide poll.

To those asking whether the Tory poll rating can go any lower, there is the answer.

As MPs put their feet up for a few days this week, they should think very carefully about how a third bout of Tory regicide in as many years would look to an already war-weary electorate.

It’s certainly one way to guarantee that early election they seem so scared of.