SECONDS FROM DISASTER
Harrowing footage shows passengers moments before fireball plane crash in Kazakhstan as jet ‘likely shot down by Russia’
Images from the wreckage show what appears to be damage caused by shrapnel
HAUNTING footage shows passengers on board the doomed Azerbaijan Airlines flight just moments before it crashed - killing 38 people.
Dozens of passengers, including children, miraculously survived the tragic Christmas Day crash after Flight J2-8243 carrying 67 people hit the ground near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan.
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Terrifying footage showed the Embraer aircraft nosediving before smashing into the ground in a fireball.
The plane had been en route from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia - but was rerouted due to bad weather conditions.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane crashed after flying through a flock of birds - but it later withdrew the statement.
Aviation experts and Ukrainian officials believe the fireball crash was likely caused by Russian anti-aircraft fire.
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Osprey Flight Solutions said the flight "was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system".
The aviation security firm sent the alert to airlines after assessing footage of the crash and damage to the aircraft, the reports.
Matt Borie, chief intelligence officer at aviation security firm Osprey, said: "Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire."
Osprey provides analysis for flights still heading into Russia amid the Ukraine war - issuing more than 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defence systems so far.
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The company's CEO Andrew Nicholson said: "This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do.
"It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided."
Horror moment plane carrying 105 passengers crashes in fireball explosion in Kazakhstan in horror Christmas Day smash
Heartbreaking footage has emerged showing terrified passengers making final video calls and leaving messages as the aircraft began to plunge.
Distressed people on board can be seen jumping out of their seats as they try to make sense of the situation.
As the oxygen masks dangled in the air, some passengers started to scream in horror, while others called their loved ones and began praying.
Meanwhile, video shows survivors of the plane crash emerging from the wreckage as emergency rescuers rush to the scene.
Injured passengers can be seen stumbling as they get out of the mangled aircraft.
Around 150 emergency responders rushed to the scene, battling towering flames and thick plumes of black smoke rising ominously into the sky.
Authorities said 29 people were miraculously pulled alive from the wreckage - but seven are reported to be in critical condition.
The country's emergency ministry said fire services had put out the blaze and survivors were being treated at a nearby hospital.
Two of the hospitalised survivors are children - believed to be girls aged 11 and 16.
“They are receiving all the necessary medical care in hospitals in the region,” said the Ministry of Health.
A video was taken inside the plane by survivor Subkhon Rakhimov - who realised there was an issue and sent the clip to his wife.
The passenger who now has a heavily bruised face said: "The flight attendant did her job perfectly, I don't know if she survived or not, but she did her job perfectly.
"Where there was an oxygen tank explosion, experts will say, only they can say - it happened. But, there was an explosion."
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WHAT CAUSED THE CRASH?
Flight-tracking data from revealed that the aircraft made what appeared to be a figure-eight manoeuvre as it approached Aktau airport.
Its altitude fluctuated significantly during the final moments of the flight before crashing.
The cockpit’s final, desperate attempt to land in Aktau was captured in horrifying detail.
The aircraft is seen descending too steeply, its nose pointed sharply down, moments before the crash shattered the festive morning.
Witnesses described a deafening explosion as the plane broke apart and burst into flames upon impact.
Images of the flaming wreckage, with emergency services battling to control the inferno, capture the sheer scale of the disaster as charred fragments of the plane lie scattered across the crash site.
Kazaeronavigatsiya, Kazakhstan’s air navigation authority, confirmed the emergency declaration, stating: "The Embraer 190 AHY8243 aircraft travelling on the Baku-Grozny route declared an emergency situation due to a collision with a bird and violation of steering control."
Russia's aviation watchdog said on Telegram: "Preliminary: after a collision with birds, due to an emergency situation on board, its commander decided to 'go' to an alternate airfield - Aktau was chosen."
But President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has said that it is too soon to determine the cause of the crash.
"The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing," he said.
An aviation expert has claimed that it is unlikely the crash was caused by a bird strike.
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory told Reuters that in a bird strike, planes usually land in the nearest available field and do not go hundreds of miles off
He said: "This does not look like crash damage. This indeed looks like an influence from the outside.
"You can lose control of the plane, but you don't fly wildly off course as a consequence."
Meanwhile, FlightRadar24 reported that the plane experienced severe GPS jamming, which caused it to transmit faulty ADS-B data — the information used by flight-tracking websites to monitor planes in real-time.
Russia has previously been accused of jamming GPS signals in the region, raising questions about its potential involvement.
The aircraft had already been forced to divert from part of Russia that Moscow has been defending against Ukrainian drone attacks.
RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT?
Pro-Kremlin media and independent sources have claimed that Russian defences may have targeted the aircraft.
Images from the wreckage show what appear to be bullet holes or damage caused by shrapnel - raising questions about the cause of the crash.
Russian military analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team stated on Wednesday that the holes could have been caused by a Pantsir-S1 air defence missile.
It comes after 50 Ukrainian drones were targeting areas of Russia shortly before the incident which may have triggered defences.
Pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Rybar said: "Several drones were shot down over North Ossetia and neighbouring Ingushetia."
A Kremlin-supporting blogger Yuriy Podolyaka wrote that the aircraft "shows damage consistent with an air defence missile, detonating from the side and above.
"Survivors recall a 'bang' during its third foggy landing attempt in Grozny before redirection to Makhachkala.
"It may have been caught in a defence response to an attack on Grozny."
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CHRISTMAS TRAGEDY
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared a day of mourning on Thursday.
He cancelled a planned visit to Russia for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a grouping of former Soviet nations.
Aliyev's office said the president "ordered the prompt initiation of urgent measures to investigate the causes of the disaster".
"I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash... and wish a speedy recovery to the injured," Aliyev said.
A Kazakh woman told the local branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that she was near where the plane crashed and rushed to the site to help survivors.
The woman said: "They were covered in blood. They were crying. They were calling for help."
She said they saved some teenagers.
"I'll never forget their look, full of pain and despair," said Elmira. "A girl pleaded: 'Save my mother, my mother is back there'."
The health ministry said a special flight was being sent from the Kazakh capital Astana with specialist doctors to treat the injured.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with Aliyev and "expressed his condolences in connection with the crash", his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
"A Russian emergency situations ministry had been sent to Aktau with medical personnel and other equipment," Putin said later as he opened the CIS leaders' meeting in Saint Petersburg.
Azerbaijan's first lady Mehriban Aliyeva, who is also the country's first vice president, said she was "deeply saddened by the news of the tragic loss of lives in the plane crash near Aktau".
"I extend my heartfelt condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims. Wishing them strength and patience! I also wish a speedy recovery to the injured," she said on Instagram.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Telegram: "I express my condolences to the relatives of the passengers of the Azerbaijan Airlines jet who died."
Kazakhstan said it had opened an investigation into the cause of the crash, which was not immediately clear.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane flew through a flock of birds before withdrawing the statement.
"We cannot disclose any investigation results at this time," the office of Azerbaijan's prosecutor general said in a statement.
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"All possible scenarios are being examined, and the necessary expert analyses are underway," it added.
It said an investigative team led by the deputy prosecutor general of Azerbaijan has been dispatched to Kazakhstan and is working at the crash site.
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