Shock new poll shows Theresa May LOSING her majority – but experts brand it ‘utter tripe’
POLLSTER YouGov was mocked today after predicting that the Tories are on course to lose their majority.
The rogue poll, which contradicts every other pre-election survey, was described as "utter tripe" by sceptical experts.
The poll suggested that Theresa May was likely to lose seats, resulting in a hung Parliament.
It is supposedly based on a seat-by-seat analysis of voters, adjusted according to a complex computer model.
If the results were mirrored on election day next Thursday, it would be a major humiliation for the PM and show that her snap election gamble had misfired.
But polling experts instantly cast doubt on the model, pointing out that it contradicts every single other poll conducted over the past two years.
Broadcaster Iain Dale called the survey "utter tripe" and predicted that YouGov would "look complete and utter prunes".
James Morris, who was Ed Miliband's pollster, added: "At the last election YouGov seat-based model had Labour sauntering home. No doubt they've tweaked it but, well, this is rather brave."
Mr Miliband himself joked: "The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015."
Jim Messina, Obama's former campaign manager who is now working with the Tories, said he had "spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll from YouGov".
And even left-wing journalist Paul Mason, a rabid supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, described the finding as "weird", saying: "Right now Labour is nowhere near achieving this."
The analysis, , puts the Tories on 310 seats, down from the 330 they went into the election with, and 16 short of a majority.
Labour would get 257 seats - up from 229 - the Liberal Democrats ten, the SNP 50, the Greens one and Plaid Cymru three.
However, the pollster admits that its model allows for a wide range of eventual outcomes - from a larger Tory majority, to a collapse leaving the party with fewer seats than Labour.
Asked about the poll during a visit to Plymouth this morning, Mrs May said: "The only poll that matters is the one that's going to take place on June 8 and then people will have a choice as to who they want to see as leader."
And when Mr Corbyn was quizzed about the poll, he refused to rule out an informal deal with the SNP which could propel him to Number 10.
YouGov interviewed 50,000 panellists and applied their answers to a computer model which takes into account the fact that voters from similar demographics tend to vote the same way.
The company says that its model consistently predicted a victory for Leave ahead of last year's EU referendum.
Chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said: "We know we run a risk publishing so much data in the heat of an election but as data scientists we are committed to innovating to increase both accuracy and specificity."
Although the Tories' lead has fallen in many polls over the past ten days, every survey carried out in the normal fashion has shown Mrs May ahead by at least five points.
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Since the PM took office last summer, no poll has predicted that she would fail to win a majority at the General Election.
If the YouGov survey did prove to be accurate, it would lead to a frantic period of horse-trading in which the Tories might attempt to govern as a minority while Mr Corbyn puts together a "coalition of chaos" with the SNP and Lib Dems.
After the poll was initially reported late last night, the pound fell by 0.5 per cent as traders panicked at the possibility of Mr Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
But sterling recovered its losses this morning after analysts poured cold water on the YouGov findings.
The survey also took bookies by surprise - Ladbrokes suspended odds on hundreds of political bets after the poll was released.