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THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

Theresa May set for General Election victory with up to 96-seat majority according to the last surveys before polls close at 10pm

THERESA MAY will be returned as Prime Minister tomorrow with a majority of up to 96, according to the final election day polls.

Modelling by Lord Ashcroft found that support for the Tories had hardened in the final few days - which could give her a resounding victory.

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 Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives to vote in the general election at polling station in Maidenhead
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Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May arrives to vote in the general election at polling station in MaidenheadCredit: EPA
 Got your ballot paper? Theresa votes with husband Philip this morning
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Got your ballot paper? Theresa votes with husband Philip this morningCredit: Getty Images
 The latest Ipsos Mori poll, which puts Theresa May on course to be returned as Prime Minister
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The latest Ipsos Mori poll, which puts Theresa May on course to be returned as Prime Minister

The latest figures from Lord Ashcroft showed that a best case scenario would see the Tories would win 373 seats - if voters turned out and voted how they indicated.

They found out that if turnout is the same as it was in 2015, they would land 364 seats, and if everyone who voted in the referendum came to the polls, it would be 351 seats.

The news will be a breath of fresh air for the Prime Minister after weeks of worry over whether she would be able to increase her majority substantially.

And research by Ipsos Mori for the showed the Conservatives trouncing Labour by eight points as the election enters its final hours.

The Prime Minister and dedicated husband Philip showed up early to cast their ballots at polling stations in Maidenhead today, greeting the press with smiles.

But for hapless Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, an increased vote share will probably still lead to a loss of seats overall.

The fresh research put the Tories on 44 per cent, Labour on 36 per cent, the Lib Dems on 7, and Ukip on just 4.

The bookies also think the Conservatives will come out on top - although their odds have reduced throughout the campaign.

Sun Bets has the Tories as with the odds resting on 1/20.

 Mr Corbyn voting in Islington earlier today
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Mr Corbyn voting in Islington earlier todayCredit: EPA

And Labour's divisions are bound to continue if the polls are right - as Team Corbyn are prepared to argue that his increased share of the vote will mean he SHOULD stay on as leader.

Last night a raft polls forecast a wide array of different election results - but all had Mrs May in front.


General Election 2017 live – Get the latest news, results and reaction HERE


With the beleaguered polling industry’s reputation again on the line, one firm - ICM - gave a 12 point lead, on 46% versus Labour’s 34%.

 ICM gave the Tories a 12-point lead, but Kantar put them just five points apart
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ICM gave the Tories a 12-point lead, but Kantar put them just five points apart

And respected pollsters ComRes put Theresa May’s party ten points ahead of Labour on 44 per cent.

When “don’t know” voters were included on the basis of who they preferred as PM, the Tory lead rose 12 points to 46 per cent.

ComRes analysis showed half of 2015 Ukip voters had now turned to the Tories – a total of two million votes.

Pollsters braced for backlash as predictions all over the place

POLLING companies were braced for a devastating backlash this evening after spectacularly failing to predict the result of the Election, writes Harry Cole.

Firms even face the risk of going out business after ten eve of voting polls showed the Tory lead to be anything from one to 12 points — with one even tipping Jeremy Corbyn to win the most seats.

The Tories have led the way in the polls since the election was announced in April, but Labour have seen a swell in support. But the size of the Tory lead has been topic of hot dispute, with firm YouGov showing Labour within touching distance.

But the final poll from ICM on Wednesday showed Theresa May going into the election with a comfortable 12-point lead.

And yesterday Ipsos MORI research showed the Conservatives were on 44 per cent, ahead of Labour’s 36 per cent.

Pollsters have been under fire since failing to spot David Cameron was on his way to a majority in 2015, and incorrectly pointing to a Remain victory in the Brexit referendum.

An industry source told The Sun: “There is going to have to be one hell an inquiry into this and it will need to be painful. Some people are going to look very silly by Friday lunchtime.”

 ComRes suggest half of 2015 Ukip voters had now turned to the Tories
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ComRes suggest half of 2015 Ukip voters had now turned to the ToriesCredit: Getty Images

And it revealed the were shedding voters to both major parties with two fifths saying they would vote either Tory or Labour.

At least six pollsters issued their final General Election verdicts tonight – as they attempted to restore their shattered reputations.

YouGov's final figures were:

  • CON 42%
  • LAB 35%
  • LD 10%
  • UKIP 5%
  • GRN 2%
  • OTH 6%

The final poll of polls from seven different firms is:

  • CON 43%
  • LAB 36%
  • LIB 8%
  • UKIP, 5%
  • GRN 2%
  • OTH 6%

Sun Bets spokesman Tim Reynolds said bookies were convinced of a Tory majority – but far from the commanding victory expected last month.

He blamed the U-turn on social care and underwhelming TV performances by the PM for the reduction.

 A prediction for the number of Conservative seats in the General Election, from April 18 until today
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A prediction for the number of Conservative seats in the General Election, from April 18 until today

He said: “Just three weeks ago May looked likely to be armed with 400 Tory MPs, but we now predict a total of approximately 367.

“Even amidst YouGov’s dubious hung parliament prediction last week though, we never doubted that the Tories would increase their majority- and inevitably Corbyn’s mask slipped in the final leaders’ debate.”

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He added: “Mrs May’s willingness to amend the Human Rights Act to stamp out terror is sure to get strong public backing at the polls.”

A separate projection by Tory Lord Ashcroft estimated a total of 357 Tory seats – a majority of 64 – and also predicted the SNP’s Moray seat – held by Westminster leader Angus Robertson – had a 57 per cent chance of toppling to the Tories.

 The Lib Dems are shedding voters to both major parties with two fifths saying they would vote either Tory or Labour
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The Lib Dems are shedding voters to both major parties with two fifths saying they would vote either Tory or LabourCredit: PA:Press Association

In 2015 the opinion polls got the result drastically wrong with a staggering 92 polls failing to predict a Tory majority.

Experts were forced to launch a probe and make future recommendations into research techniques.

If the ComRes figures are replicated it would give Theresa May a 74-seat majority - the biggest Tory landslide since the days of Margaret Thatcher.

 The ComRes figures would give Theresa May the biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher
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The ComRes figures would give Theresa May the biggest majority since Margaret ThatcherCredit: PA:Press Association

It came as PanelBase issued their final election poll putting the Tories ahead of Labour by eight points.

  • CON 44 (NC)
  • LAB 36 (NC)
  • LD 7 (NC)
  • UKIP 5 (NC)
  • GRN 2 (-1)

Pollsters Kantar - who surveyed voters before and after last weekend's terror attack - predicted only a five point lead for Theresa May.

The expressed voting intentions in their poll suggested a 43% vote share for the Conservatives, 38% for Labour, 7% for the Liberal Democrats and 4% each for UKIP and the SNP.

The Tory lead over Labour has shrunk from ten percentage points in their last poll to five percentage points in this one - and from 22 percentage points since the election was first called.

Young votes for Corbyn

A record number of people registered to vote on deadline day in a suspected younger voter surge for Jeremy Corbyn.

A total of 622,398 people applied on 22 May via the government’s website - taking the total eligible turnout for today’s election to 46.9million people.

That was up 100,000 from registerations on deadline day in 2015.

Tech firm Kainos, who work with the Cabinet Office to process voters applications said another 90,000 18 to 24-year-olds had registered on the second to last day.

Younger voters are traditionally more left-wing, giving a glimmer of hope to Labour that they could see a poll boost.

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