One year after the Brexit referendum, how Osborne’s apocalyptic economic forecasts have almost entirely failed to come true
The Sun takes a look at the Treasury's six major predictions about the economics of Brexit
IN THE run-up to the EU referendum, George Osborne led efforts to convince voters that Brexit would be an economic disaster.
Dubbed "Project Fear", his dire warning predicted that within two years of a vote to leave Britain's economy would crash, sending unemployment and inflation soaring.
The Treasury produced a 90-page booklet detailing what they said would be the short-term consequences of Brexit.
Mr Osborne said in the foreword that it would be a "serious and sober assessment of the economic facts", rather than a campaigning document.
But he concluded with an unequivocal pro-European message, saying: "A vote to remain in the EU would be the best way to ensure continued growth and safeguard jobs."
Today is exactly one year since Britain ignored his warnings and voted to leave.
So how has the shocking dossier held up - is the UK's economy booming, or collapsing?
Shrinking economy - WRONG
The Treasury laid out a detailed prediction claiming Britain's economy would shrink if we voted to quit the EU.
They said GDP would shrink by at least 0.1 per cent in each of the four quarters after the referendum - bringing a year-long recession.
Instead, in the first three quarters the economy grew by 0.5, 0.7 and 0.2 per cent, far stronger than predicted.
The Treasury wrongly thought that business investment and consumer purchases would both fall drastically because of economic uncertainty, but this has not happened.
Army of unemployed - WRONG
Civil servants produced a chart which showed unemployment soaring after a Leave vote, sending half a million people into the dole queue.
One year after the referendum, The Treasury said, the jobless rate would be 1.6 per cent higher.
But in fact it is 1 per cent lower - 4.6 per cent of workers are unemployed, compared to 5.6 per cent a year ago.
Mr Osborne's warning of "weaker growth and a fall in demand for labour" has not materialised.
Pound slumps - RIGHT
Mr Osborne's dossier predicted a fall in the value of sterling by 12 per cent in the aftermath of a Leave vote.
This proved to be an underestimate - the pound is now worth 16 per cent less against the dollar than it was before the referendum.
£1 is currently worth around $1.27 compared to $1.48 last June, suggesting global traders think there are fewer investment opportunities in Britain.
This means Brits going abroad have less spending power, and forces up the price of imported goods.
However, it is a boon to exporters whose products are more attractive to foreign buyers because of the weak pound.
Soaring inflation - RIGHT
The document suggested that the fall in the value of the pound would raise the cost of living, because imports are now more expensive.
It predicted that inflation would rise by somewhere between 2.3 and 2.7 per cent after a vote to quit the EU.
The consumer prices index currently stands at 2.9 per cent, up from 0.5 per cent at the time of the referendum.
House price crash - WRONG
Civil servants said that greater economic uncertainty would drive investors out of Britain, sending asset prices - including the value of homes - plummeting.
The Treasury warned that by 2018, house prices would be at least 10 per cent lower and possibly fall by up to 18 per cent.
By contrast, the latest official figures show that the price of the average home has risen by 5.6 per cent in a year.
While estate agents have reported low growth in recent months, there is no sign of an imminent crash.
Hike in borrowing - WRONG
A table in the forecast showed public sector borrowing rise by £12.2billion in 2016-17 if the UK voted to leave the EU.
But the Office for National Statistics reported that borrowing for the year actually fell by £20billion, reaching its lowest level since 2008.
Predictions by Mr Osborne that welfare spending would have to soar while the tax take tumbled have proven untrue.
Although the new Chancellor Philip Hammond has slowed the pace of austerity, Britain remains on track to balance the books by the mid-2020s.
So how did they miss the mark?
Remainers often argue that the reason Britain has not seen an economic crash due to Brexit is that the full effects will not be seen until after we have finally withdrawn from the EU.
But the Treasury dossier specifically focussed only on the short term, making predictions about the period between the referendum and mid-2018.
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So there is no escaping the fact that the warning has proven seriously misguided, one year on from polling day.
Although the document was prepared by civil servants who are supposed to be neutral, they may have felt guided by Mr Osborne's passionate pro-EU views.
In any case, the incorrect predictions have ended up being the latest embarrassment for economists, who have still not recovered from their failure to predict the financial crisis.
