Without a deal on Brexit both the UK and EU27 will face ‘substantial losses’, says report
If British and European negotiators fail to come to an agreement, Brexit will result in significant job losses for each side, warns the Centre for Economic Policy Research
EUROPE will be clobbered by 1.2 million job losses if it forces Britain into a no deal Brexit, a bombshell report reveals today.
Economists predict the hit to the EU27’s economy will be “considerably more” than Brussels currently believes if it throws up trade barriers to the UK.
Germany will see the biggest hit to its work force, with 292,000 jobs at threat.
And Ireland – which relies hugely on business with the UK - will shed an eye-watering 2.5 per cent of its two million workers.
The report, by the respected Centre for Economic Policy Research, also found that a hard Brexit will see the other 27 EU countries haemorrhage 1.5 per cent of its total GDP.
But the forecast also paints a bleak picture for Britain.
Academics predict the UK economy would face an overall 4.5 per cent hit to GDP and suffer 526,830 job losses under no deal, which would force us to trade on standard WTO terms.
The report states: “The conventional wisdom of Brexit is that the UK has a great deal to lose, but a sector-level input-output approach indicates that there are only losers from Brexit.
“Our findings indicate that both the UK and the EU27 would suffer substantial losses if they are denied free trade access to each other’s market when Brexit happens.
“While the current belief is that especially the UK has a great deal to lose from Brexit, our sector-level input-output approach clearly shows that the EU27 stands to lose considerably more than previous estimates.”
The CEPR’s dramatic findings back up PM Theresa May’s repeated warnings that refusing Britain a good Brexit deal would leave both sides in the negotiation badly damaged.
They heap further pressure on EU leaders to agree to move on to trade talks at a crunch Brussels summit in two weeks’ time.
Last week Bulgaria’s PM broke ranks with Brussels last week to reveal the bloc is “not ready” for the fallout from a no deal Brexit.
In unusually candid remarks, Boyko Borisov conceded: “If I were to say we are ready, it would be overestimating ourselves”.