Pollster predicts Tory majority in key Leave areas to drive May’s local election win
Theresa May's party could still dominate this week's local elections despite losing seats in "Labour City" London, predicts pollster Professor Sir John Curtice
THERESA MAY could end up ‘winning’ this week’s council elections as Brexit-led gains across England balance out a drubbing in London, a top pollster claims.
Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives could pick up control of councils in key Leave voting areas such as Peterborough and Rugby as well as Basildon and Pendle.
And he argued that while London was now a “Labour City”, Jeremy Corbyn’s party would struggle to pick up more town halls this time round than in 2014- when the seats up for grabs were last contested.
He said Labour would need a 7.5 per cent swing from the Tories to take control of the iconic Conservative strongholds on Wandsworth and Westminster.
And he added that the anti-Semitism row could see Labour struggle to win Barnet – with its large Jewish population.
Speaking at the Institute for Government, Sir John said: “There’s no reason to anticipate a major swing from Conservative to Labour or vice versa.
“But there’s every reason to anticipate a divergence between Remain and Leave areas. If this means London swings to Labour, then it’s also likely to mean much of the rest of England will swing to Conservative.”
He added: “Don’t be surprised if projected national vote share (based on Thursday’s results) has Tories ahead even those they have lost more seats in London.”
The Strathcylde University Professor – Britain’s most famous so-called psephologist – received a knighthood in the Queen’s 2018 New Year’s honours list.
He has accurately predicted the last four general elections, including last June’s surprise results where he correctly said the Conservatives would lose their majority.
The forecast came as separate research claimed voters were “anxious” about the state of the country – led by fury over the housing crisis.
Deborah Mattinson at Britain Thinks added that young 18-30 voters were “more gloomy than older voters” and felt a “strong sense of injustice”.
She said: “Seven out of ten no longer think it pays to work hard.”
Some 4,410 seats are being contested on Thursday across 150 councils. Just over 40 per cent are in London.
Sir John said: “Because London accounts for 42 per cent of seats, there is a risk that the headline tally of seats won or lost will be misleading.”
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