MPs must vote down Theresa May’s hideous Brexit vision – and prepare for a No Deal Brexit
WHEN I talk to my friends and colleagues about why they might vote for this humiliating deal with the EU, they offer a groan of despair.
There is only one reason, they say.
They know that we would be handing over a colossal £39billion for nothing in return.
They know that we would be locked in the worst of all worlds – unable to do proper free trade deals, and unable to control our own trade policy.
They know we would become a vassal state of the EU.
Everyone can see the hideous choice that this deal imposes on this country: to accept law from Brussels, over a huge range of policy – and yet with no say over those laws – or else to accept the break up of the UK and the sundering of Northern Ireland from Great Britain.
And they know – worst of all – that Brussels would have a veto over our exit from the Northern Ireland “backstop” arrangement.
This veto would give the EU the power to bully us till kingdom come.
We would not be able to end our colony status – and achieve real independence - unless and until we had satisfied the demands of all 27 member states.
The Spanish would make another play for Gibraltar. The French would come for our fish and our banks. The Germans would want concessions on EU immigration.
Other countries would want more money.
It would be a nightmare negotiation. So why do my friends think they must vote for it?
Because they believe that there is no alternative: that we may not like what has happened – but that we have run out of time and run out of road.
It is crucial to understand that this pessimism is just flat wrong.
If this deal is voted down on Tuesday – and I devoutly hope it is - we need to do two big things.
First we need to change the Withdrawal Agreement, keeping all the sensible things that have been agreed on citizens’ rights, but getting rid of the “backstop” agreement on the Northern Irish border.
We should use the so-called transition period both to negotiate a big and generous zero tariff zero quota free trade deal, and to solve the technical problems posed by the Northern Ireland border.
There is no reason why we should not use that time – almost two years – to put in place the systems that will allow our whole country to come out of both the customs union and the single market, which is what the people were promised both at the referendum and the general election.
We should be clear that we will keep back at least half of the £39billion until the free trade deal is done.
And second it is time now to show our EU friends that we mean business.
This should be a take it or leave it offer – and so show that we mean business we must be able to walk away.
This is a great country, capable of rising to immense challenges – and I believe the people of this country are fed up to the back teeth of being told by their government that they are simply incapable of managing the logistical problems of Brexit, when for two and a half years this government has studiously and deliberately failed to address those logistical problems.
It is that failure and that lack of resolve that has so weakened our hand in the talks.
Now is the time to get on with it – and remember, if we have to go down this route, we will have the entire £39billion to spend on it.
We need to get our ports ready, hire the staff, ensure that the planes can fly and that companies are helped to transfer their data under any circumstances.
I don’t believe for a moment that our EU friends and partners want such an outcome.
They have a £95 billion surplus with us in goods alone.
They don’t want barriers to trade.
They want a deal as much as we do.
Do you really think that the people of the Calais region would be grateful if the Paris government took steps to block commercial traffic from the UK?
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Have you seen what is going on in France?
No one wants disruption of any kind – and the way to avoid it is to get ready to manage it now, with energy and conviction.
We can still get a great deal, and I am sure we will. But the best way to get a great deal is to prepare for no deal.