MPs have 10 days to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal or face a weaker Brexit negotiating position with the EU
Columnist James Forsyth warns of the dire consequences for Britain if Theresa May's Brexit deal is not passed by March 12
MPs have ten days to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal or calamity strikes.
Her deal is far from perfect. But what will happen if it doesn’t pass is truly appalling.
If Mrs May’s deal hasn’t won a Commons vote by March 12, the Commons will vote on whether to proceed with No Deal.
The Parliamentary arithmetic is such that No Deal will be defeated.
The next day, Parliament will then vote on whether to request an extension from the EU. This vote will almost certainly pass.
At this point, the UK would be in the weakest position it has ever been in this negotiation.
Whether to grant an extension or not would be up to the EU and would require all 27 member states to agree.
Any extension would almost certainly come with conditions.
THE GAME'S DUP
The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has already said it would have to be “justified by new choices by the British”.
It would also be up to the EU to decide how long an extension to offer.
If Parliament accepted the terms of the extension, then there would almost certainly be another effort by MPs to take control of the Brexit process.
A cross-party group of MPs is already preparing to do this.
If they succeed, Brexit would become softer still.
Parliament would try to commit the UK to staying in a permanent customs union with the EU.
SINGLE MARKET PUSH
Some MPs would even like to keep the UK in the single market as well, following EU rules on everything from financial services regulation to free movement.
Others would use an extension to push for a second referendum.
The only way to sidestep this scenario is for Mrs May’s deal to pass by the 12th.
But given that it lost last time round by 230 votes — a record defeat for a Government bill — this is a hard ask.
Mrs May’s plan for getting it through has been to get something on the backstop to reassure MPs that it won’t be permanent.
DUP HOLD THE KEY
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, has been tasked with doing this.
The key to getting the deal through is persuading the Tories’ confidence and supply partners, the DUP, to accept the deal.
If they do, the Tory rebellion will reduce substantially.
After all, if the DUP are satisfied that the deal won’t end up splitting Northern Ireland off from the rest of the UK — the principal criticism of the backstop — then it is hard for any Tory to object to it on these grounds.
Along with the Government chief whip, Cox met the DUP on Wednesday night.
The verdict of one senior DUP source after that meeting is that the Government is “not there yet” on getting enough for them to come on board.
BORDER CRISIS
Some leading DUP figures think the move by Cabinet ministers to try to take No Deal off the table has made it less likely that Cox can get enough to satisfy them.
“It’s tricky. Barnier isn’t yielding, the Irish aren’t yielding,” complains one Cabinet minister.
At the moment there is little optimism in No10 about being able to hold a meaningful vote next week.
That means the Government will have only one chance to turn round a 230-vote defeat.
But Brexiteer MPs should remember that things will only get worse if Mrs May’s deal hasn’t passed by the evening of March 12.
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Cox in for rough ride on backstop
THE prospects of Mrs May’s deal passing depends on what the DUP and the European Research Group, the main Brexiteer bloc in the Tory Party, make of any changes Geoffrey Cox can secure to the backstop.
The ERG has now set up a panel of legal eagles to examine what Cox comes back with.
The significance of this group is twofold.
First, the DUP’s Westminster leader Nigel Dodds – a Cambridge-educated lawyer – is a member of it. This, as one former Cabinet minister tells me, shows “the symbiosis between the DUP and the ERG”.
It means the DUP and the ERG are likely to take the same view of whatever Cox delivers. The second is that it provides a structure for examining any changes that Cox secures.
Some in the ERG leadership were concerned that the veteran Eurosceptic Tory MP Bill Cash – also a lawyer – was determined to rubbish whatever Cox gets.
They feared that an instant verdict from him could commit the group to opposing the deal come what may.
But no one should think that the other lawyers in the group will be looking to give Cox’s work an easy ride.
One leading Tory Brexiteer tells me: “If they unpack the stuffing of Cox’s codpiece and find it is a vainglorious appendage, then they’ll say so.”
I understand that Cox is concentrating more on a clearer exit mechanism for the backstop than a time limit.
But whether this will be enough to satisfy these lawyers remains to be seen.
Tom to decide what's next for Labour
TOM WATSON’S group of Social Democratic Labour MPs is expected to have its first meeting next week.
The question of what Watson, the party’s deputy leader, is up to with this group is preoccupying Labour insiders.
One option is that he could use the group to pile pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to adopt positions this group want him to.
Labour’s electoral prospects cannot survive many more defections.
If Watson regularly made clear that if Corbyn didn’t do X, Y or Z then this group might walk, he could change Labour’s approach in a host of areas.
Fear of more defection is what explains why Labour is now moving towards backing a second referendum, and why Corbyn loyalist Chris Williamson has been suspended for saying the party is too apologetic about anti-Semitism.
But by setting up this group, Watson also makes it easier for it to one day declare its independence from Corbyn’s leadership and stand on its own two feet as a new political party.
The group will, over the coming months, work up the policies that any new party would need.
An amber dud for PM Boris?
IN private, Tories are eagerly speculating about the leadership contest they expect later this year.
Allies of Boris Johnson had been confident that he would, eventually, secure the support of Amber Rudd.
They didn’t expect the pair to run on a joint ticket.
But they were hopeful that she would back him if she was knocked out in the early rounds of the contest.
Securing the support of a Remainer from the One Nation wing of the party would have been a big boost to Boris’s campaign.
It would have shown that – contrary to what his critics say – he COULD bring the two wings of the party together.
But some of those close to him now fear that the Brexit differences between them are too big to make such a pact possible.
They worry that Rudd might now look for someone else to throw her support behind.
One Boris backer tells me: “Amber is playing a very clever game.”
Cameron's error
AT Cabinet on Tuesday, Chris Grayling pointed out that David Cameron would still be in No10 if he hadn’t taken No Deal off the table.
The Transport Secretary’s argument was that if Cameron hadn’t made clear he would campaign for Remain come what may, he would have got more out of the EU.
If he had done that, Cameron would – probably – have won the referendum and would be coming towards the end of his second term as PM.
In both recent negotiations with the EU, the UK has reduced its bargaining power by never properly preparing to walk away.