Boris Johnson has his head on the blockers — until he shuts down efforts to block No Deal, the EU won’t take his threats seriously
TEN days into Boris Johnson’s premiership, the big change is that the Government machine now thinks No Deal really might happen.
Those involved in No-Deal planning meetings say there is now an intensity to them there never was before.
Rather than querying whether No Deal is desirable, officials are getting on with preparing for it. Ministers are bound into this strategy.
One of those who served in both Theresa May’s Cabinet and the new one says that under the previous Prime Minister, Sunday’s Cabinet conference call would have led to a long discussion about the merits of No Deal.
But now all ministers are signed up to leaving on October 31 whether there’s a deal or not, that is not how the call turned out.
“People don’t realise how far down the line to No Deal we are,” says one Government insider.
DROP THE BACKSTOP
These No-Deal preparations serve two purposes. The first is to get the country ready for leaving the customs union and the single market.
“We’re making the prep in order to get a deal,” says one Boris confidant.
The PM remains confident the EU will offer up concessions rather than see the UK leave without a deal. Within No10, “Boris is the most optimistic” person about this, I am informed.
At the moment, there is little sign of the EU coming to the table.
When Boris told Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the EU Commission, a willingness to drop the backstop was a prerequisite for talks, Juncker made very clear they weren’t willing to negotiate on that basis.
If the EU did make an offer, though, it would cause divisions in Downing Street and the Cabinet.
Some think talks should begin only if the EU offers to drop the backstop.
Others argue that a willingness to reopen the withdrawal agreement would be a suitable basis on which to resume negotiations.
There are Cabinet ministers who would be cross if Boris Johnson rejected such an offer.
When I put this scenario to one Secretary of State, they replied: “I’m going to have to take every day as it comes.”
'PARLIAMENT V THE PEOPLE'
One of Boris’s allies admits that “if the EU did make a serious offer, that would destabilise things”.
There is little sign of the EU adopting such a strategy, though.
At the moment, the EU is waiting to see what happens when Parliament returns in September.
Only if Boris shows he can overcome parliamentary efforts to block No Deal will the EU take his talk of No Deal seriously.
Even some of the Cabinet think Boris will need an election if he is to do No Deal.
“The chance of an election are shooting up,” a Secretary of State told me after the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
Only if Boris shows he can overcome parliamentary efforts to block No Deal will the EU take his talk of No Deal seriously.
“Something is needed to break the logjam. It feels like we’re heading for a ‘Parliament versus the People’ election.”
One of those closest to Boris tells me the message in the campaign would be: “The EU and Parliament are the blockers. The only way to get Brexit done is to vote for me.”
Boris’s view is that the EU must make the first move if the Brexit talks are to resume.
But even if they do, the Government will carry on with its No-Deal planning. Boris is determined to have that option.
Approaching the moment of Ruth
THE big question in politics right now is what happens in September when Parliament returns?
The timetable – and Downing Street’s certainty that, as No Deal is the legal default, it would happen on October 31 even if the country was in an election campaign – means that those MPs determined to bind Boris Johnson’s hands don’t have much time to act.
Some of their number are worried that they aren’t doing enough now to prepare for September.
One moans that at the moment: “It is a conference call v Dominic Cummings, and who is going to win that?”
While they might not yet know the mechanism they can use, they do think that they have the numbers.
A Tory viscerally opposed to No Deal tells me: “More people will be prepared to go over the line for Hammond and Rory.”
But there is also a belief that they require more political cover.
One former minister tells me that they need Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, to take a more active role in the campaign, as she has “autonomy and credibility”.
They think her argument about No Deal threatening the Union is the one that offers them the most protection from their members.
No10, however, believe that Davidson will keep her distance from the parliamentary campaign against No Deal.
I understand that when she and Boris met this week, only a few minutes of their three-quarters-of-an-hour meeting was taken up by Brexit.
It wasn't a tough competition
IT would be a mistake to read too much into the result of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
The Tory candidate was a convicted expenses cheat, something which was hardly likely to endear him to the voters.
But the contest was another reminder of how politics is dividing on Leave/Remain lines.
This causes problems for Jeremy Corbyn, who risks being trusted by neither Remainers nor Leavers.
Policy fast-forward in DM-ing Street
THIS is government by text message and WhatsApp. Boris Johnson keeps pinging DMs to ministers urging them to get this or that done.
He is impatient, and keen not to wait for October 31 to get on with his domestic agenda.
Next week will bring announcements on NHS funding. Then there will be more on policing.
These will be policies unveiled during Boris’s leadership bid and they will fill the next few months. One senior Tory source says there will be “a continuation of the campaign up to October 31”.
This, obviously, also serves the purpose of ensuring the Tories are ready – in policy terms – if an election is forced on them.
The main focus, though, is getting ready to leave the EU on October 31. Downing Street now has two main meetings, one at 8am the next at 7pm, to check on the day’s progress.
While the daily Cobra meetings are forcing the pace of No-Deal planning. One minister says: “You can feel the energy coming back into the building”.
Downing Street may struggle to keep up this break-neck pace. But for the moment, the momentum is with the Government.
Aide Berry a mover
TWO of the groups orbiting Boris Johnson are his team from his mayoral days and his old parliamentary gang.
I am told the reshuffle caused tension between the two as Jake Berry, one of Boris’s loyalist parliamentary allies, demanded more in the reshuffle, tiring Eddie Lister, Boris’s City Hall chief of staff.
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I understand that Berry, the last person attending Cabinet to be announced, pushed hard to be based in both the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.
He was also very clear he expected to be a member of the Privy Council.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.
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