It’s the rogue ones vs. the prorogue ones as MPs return from their summer break to seize control of Brexit
NEXT week will be one of the most tumultuous, ill-tempered and consequen-tial weeks in recent British political history.
MPs will return from their summer break on Tuesday and anti-No Deal members will immediately try to seize control of the order paper, allowing them to determine what gets debated in the Commons and when. With the connivance of the Speaker John Bercow, they will almost certainly succeed.
Having gained this power, they will set about binding Boris Johnson’s hands. They will try to legislate to ensure this country cannot leave the European Union without a deal.
Do they have the numbers to pull this off? Probably, yes.
The ranks of Tory rebels have been swelled by the arrival of former Cabinet ministers such as Philip Hammond and David Gauke, and the Government’s decision to prorogue Parliament means that plans to wait until the end of September to act have been dropped.
One former minister says the “prorogation scandal has tipped things over the edge”.
HIGH RISK
If they have the numbers, do they have the time? This is more doubtful.
No10’s decision to prorogue Parliament means they would have to get a bill through both Houses in just over a week. With Bercow’s help, it will be possible for them to rush it through the Commons quickly. But it will be much harder to do that in the Lords.
One Brexit-backing former Secretary of State tells me: “Our lot down there will do their best to talk it out.”
Even if the rebels can get a bill passed, the Government’s actions this week are designed to show that they won’t simply comply with it. They want the rebels to think they can’t succeed unless they change the government. “The aim is to force a binary choice between Corbyn and our Brexit plan,” is how one of those at the heart of things explains it.
Those close to Boris Johnson believe this is their best chance of getting things through. They calculate that, ultimately, the Commons will not be prepared to take the risk of making Jeremy Corbyn prime minister.
ANYONE BUT CORBYN
This is a high-risk manoeuvre. But so far, the thought of putting Corbyn in No10 even temporarily has proved too much for all but a couple of the Tory rebels.
At the same time, Boris is trying to reassure Tory MPs that he really is trying for a deal. I understand that next week, Amber Rudd — the Work and Pensions Secretary who campaigned for Remain in 2016 — will join with him as part of an effort to persuade Tory MPs not to back the rebel legislation, and to give him time to secure a deal.
I am told she was “disappointed” by his decision to prorogue but remains convinced he is genuine about getting a deal and that the EU will offer concessions if Parliament backs the Government next week.
The biggest problem with the extension the rebels want is they can’t say what it is for. The reason is they can’t agree on what its purpose should be: Many want to stop Brexit altogether, others just to block No Deal.
An extension without a purpose would do nothing but prolong the uncertainty and keep this country in limbo. It is time to get on with it.
BOJO SETS ELECTION BATTLE LINES
EVEN as the legislative battles over Brexit rage next week, Boris Johnson will keep on trying to push his domestic priorities: More resources for the NHS, a clampdown on crime and more discipline in schools.
Why, because No10 think most voters just want Brexit done, so they want to be talking about the public’s priorities.
They think they win whenever Boris is seen on the news discussing these issues. The polls suggest the PM is having some success with this approach. One Secretary of State puts the current Tory poll lead down to BoJo being: “Very effective at giving them hope of a non-Brexit dominated world.”
Of course, another reason why the PM wants to keep hammering home his domestic priorities is that we are going to end up having a general election in the next few months.
l IN another sign that a general election is coming, I am informed that the Scottish Tories will not select their new leader until AFTER such a poll.
The decision to stick with an interim leader following Ruth Davidson’s resignation suggests the hierarchy north of the border doesn’t think there is time to have a proper leadership contest before any general election.
We will clearly all be heading to the polling station sooner, rather than later.
Tory rebels will be chucked out
ANY Tory MP who votes for the extension legislation next week will not be allowed to stand as a Tory candidate at the next election.
I understand No10 have decided to treat next week’s votes as they would a confidence vote, with anyone not backing the Government being immediately disqualified from standing for the party again. They hope this will keep some Tory waverers in the Government lobby next week.
It would mean that if former Cabinet ministers such as Philip Hammond voted for the legislation, as they intend to, they would be barred from standing for the party again, ending their time as Tory MPs. It is hard to think of a precedent for so many Tories going from being Cabinet ministers to being ineligible to stand for the party.
This upping of the stakes will certainly have an effect on some Tory MPs. There will be those who are reluctant to end their careers in the party over this issue.
There will undoubtedly be protests over this decision. Boris Johnson will be accused of purging the Tory party of those opposed to No Deal. But the tactics are not dissimilar to those used by John Major to get the Maastricht Treaty through in 1993 in the face of opposition from his party’s Eurosceptics.
This approach is not without risk, though. There is a danger MPs will still rebel then decide they have nothing left to lose, increasing not only the chances of them voting down the Government in a no-confidence vote, but also backing an alternative prime minister.