Theresa May could suffer a 200-vote defeat when the Commons decides on her Brexit deal — dealing a fatal blow to her Premiership
A Cabinet minister told The Sun: 'Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. They are going to bring her down'
THERESA May could suffer a 200-vote defeat when the Commons decides on her Brexit deal — dealing a fatal blow to her Premiership.
With just 12 days to go until the crucial “meaningful vote”, Cabinet ministers are considering urging her to abandon it.
One has even said there is “zero chance” the deal will get through. But No 10 has warned that the PM will not ditch the deal — and will keep pushing it through Parliament until it passes.
One Cabinet minister branded No10’s refusal to change course in the face of overwhelming odds as “extraordinary”, adding: “There is zero chance the deal will pass now”.
And a former minister – who is remaining loyal to Mrs May - has calculated that the Government will lose by a devastating 200 votes.
The senior Tory warned of “a bandwagon effect” that is pushing an ever larger coalition of Brexiteer and Remainer MPs to side against Mrs May for a myriad different reasons, dubbing it “madness”.
Another Cabinet minister told The Sun: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10.
“It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down.”
By Tuesday night, a total of 98 Tory MPs had publicly declared their opposition to the deal - struck in Brussels on Sunday after 20 months of torturous negotiation - with more known to also oppose it.
Mrs May was dealt a fresh hammer blow when loyal former Cabinet minister Sir Michael Fallon branded it “doomed”.
The Sun Says: Be Prepared
THERESA May has always insisted that “No Deal is better than a bad deal”.
Given that her deal is most likely dead, our politicians must start properly planning for a clean break from the EU to ensure minimal disruption.
Evidently, the bloc is unwilling to compromise.
Spain have already threatened us over Gibraltar and the French with fishing.
The Government should prepare to call a national emergency to ensure we are ready in four months, if necessary, to leave on our own terms.
It is not good enough for the PM to plough on with her bad deal, blindly believing that she will get it through Parliament. The odds are stacked against her.
The Government must pull its finger out and prepare for a No Deal scenario.
The ex-Defence Secretary - forced to resign a year ago for sexual inappropriateness - stunned No10 by dubbing the agreement “the worst of all worlds”.
Sir Michael also became the first senior Tory to call for a delay to Brexit on March 29 next year so negotiations for a better deal can be extended.
Ministers have begun privately working on options for a Plan B within their own factions, but there is no agreement among them on what it should be yet.
Tory whips are instead warning backbench MPs that the PM will refuse to abandon her deal even if MPs do vote it down on December 11.
No10 will instead plan to put it to Parliament a second and even a THIRD time until it passes.
One MP said: “They’re trying to bring it back at least twice - possibly a third time – after renegotiations.
“I think she needs to be gone after the first time it falls, but they’re trying to keep her in position.”
On another tense day in British politics:
- The PM was also forced to defend herself against furious accusations from DUP leader Arlene Foster that she had “given up” trying to get a better Brexit deal.
- The Treasury were braced for a fresh row when it publishes 150 pages of detailed analysis of what effect Mrs May’s deal will have on the economy.
- The Brexit deal suffered a fresh blow when it emerged the Government failed during the negotiation to win guaranteed access to two critical EU-wide crime databases.
Mrs May began her frantic nationwide tour of the UK on Tuesday with visits to Wales and Northern Ireland to try to sell her Brexit deal to the country ahead of the showdown vote.
She will also go to Scotland on Wednesday to insist the agreement delivers for fishermen by taking back control of the UK’s waters.
But ahead of the PM’s arrival in Belfast, DUP chief Ms Foster said her visit would be “a waste of time” as she won’t reopen the agreement for an Irish backstop that sees different regulations for Ulster and the rest of the UK.
Hitting back, Mrs May insisted the deal “protects” the UK, adding: “A very clear message that we have got here in Northern Ireland but elsewhere as well is that people do not want to return to uncertainty and division”.
Cabinet ministers remained loyal in public today.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted MPs “should vote for the deal” saying it wasn’t “just the Government’s position - it’s the right thing to do”.
Asked if he could guarantee that no-one would die if there was a no-deal Brexit, Mr Hancock told the Commons Health Committee: “As my permanent secretary tells me, we shouldn’t use words like guarantee.
“What we can say is that we are confident that if everybody does what they need to do then there will be the continuity of supply.”
Brexiteers last night warned that the Treasury’s analysis of the deal should be discarded as “yet more Project Fear”.
The Sun can reveal that four different scenarios will be modelled against a baseline of staying in the EU, and all four are expected to show growth will be lost because of the decision to leave.
They are the PM’s Chequers plan to align regulations on goods with the EU, membership of the EEA, a looser Canada-style free trade deal and no deal at all.
Leading Tory Brexiteer Steve Baker said: “The reputation of government economics is in the gutter. That must change.
“It’s time for the Chancellor to publish all his assumptions and full model documentation so we can begin the process of recovery.”
Meanwhile Home Secretary Sajid Javid on Tuesday night admitted there was “no guarantee” the UK would be given access to two critical EU-wide crime databases.
He admitted the Political Declaration only laid out plans to cooperate on finding “approximate measures” to cooperate on crime fighting.
Currently police chiefs can access the Schengen Information System (SISII) and ECRIS, the European Criminal Records Information System to check suspects against a list of third country nationals.
Police accesses SISII more than 500 million times last year.
Mr Javid told MPs: “Within this document [the Political Declaration] it’s within scope but it’s not guaranteed.”
The Home Secretary insisted “almost of all my counterparts” in the EU want to cooperate on security in “much the same way”.
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But Labour’s Stephen Doughty revealed the PM’s chief of staff admitted to opposition MPs at a private briefing on Monday night it would be “very difficult” to maintain access to SISII.
Mr Doughty said: “Gavin Barwell told us it’s going to be an even bigger challenge to stay connected to SISII than it was to join it in the first place.”
Ministers are also on course for a fresh showdown with the House of Commons when it emerged Downing Street will not publish the full Brexit legal advice – giving MPs “full, reasoned position statement” instead.