How Theresa May could still be forced out of No10 despite winning no-confidence vote last night

By Steve Hawkes

HOW LONG WILL THERESA MAY BE LEADER?

Winning the leadership contest in theory protects Theresa May from another challenge from her Tory MPs for one year. She intends to go before the 2022 General Election, but that could mean she remains in post for three more years up until the end of 2021.

COULD SHE BE FORCED OUT BEFORE THAT?

Yes. In a so-called ‘nuclear’ option, furious Tory Eurosceptic opponents could team up with Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP to push a non-binding ‘no confidence’ motion they believe forces the party to replace her. Such a move would likely blow the Tory Party apart.

WILL THERE BE A GENERAL ELECTION?

Possibly but it’s still a long shot. Labour would first have to win a No Confidence vote in the Government, which would require the DUP to switch support to backing Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May said she would do everything she could to avoid one.

WHEN WILL JEREMY CORBYN CHALLENGE?

Labour yesterday insisted it wasn’t a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ it launches a No Confidence challenge – saying it was clear the Government was in chaos and cannot govern. But Jeremy Corbyn’s team is worried about losing –and being forced to back a second referendum instead.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW WITH BREXIT?

Starting with an EU Council today Theresa May faces a desperate struggle to prise a big enough concession out of Brussels to secure a Parliamentary majority for her Brexit deal. She plans to put the deal before the House of Commons by January 21st.

DOES THIS MEAN MPs WILL NOW VOTE FOR HER DEAL?

Not at all. More than 100 Tory MPs had vowed to vote against her Brexit deal before it was pulled by party chiefs – despite supporting her. The biggest problem is the ‘backstop’ which under the current deal could tie the UK to EU customs rules far beyond 2020.

WHAT ABOUT THE DUP?

Theresa May’s biggest headache. The PM told MPs last night that she had encouraging talks with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds but DUP sources dismissed that out of hand. The Ulster unionists want the ‘backstop’ ditched for good before they back the PM’s deal.

IS THE EU READY TO HELP THERESA MAY?

The PM is seeking a legally watertight concession on the ‘backstop’ from Brussels and the mood music in Brussels isn’t great. Angela Merkel told the German Parliament that there is no intention to change the ‘Exit’ agreement. And a top official said the risks of No Deal had increased.

WILL THERE BE A SECOND REFERENDUM?

Theresa May insists there is no chance of a second Referendum, but last year she repeatedly ruled out a General Election before going to the polls. If her Brexit deal is voted down, there was an admission yesterday that Parliament will have a far bigger role in determining what happens next.

HAS CHRISTMAS BEEN SAVED?

Just maybe. A Tory leadership contest would have run over Christmas and New Year. Now, Parliament is expected to rise – break up for holidays – as planned on December 20 before returning on January 7. But given the events of the past year – who knows.