What will happen now that Britain has left the EU?
SO what happens now Britain has left the European Union?
If you believe everything the Remain campaign has said you better batten down the hatches in preparation for a plague of locusts, the four horsemen of the apocalypse and a tidal wave of economic woes which are set to hit UK shores.
Whereas Brexiteers claim we will now be like a freed “hostage” and rid of the “guzzling orgy of backslapping” Brussels bureaucrats.
They claim we will be able to make Britain great again by taking back control of the billions sent to the EU every year, free to make our own laws and trade deals with the rest of the world.
What happens now?
This morning leading EU politicians meet for crunch talks at 8.30am.
The tug-of-war will now be over when Article 50 is triggered – the mechanism for leaving the EU.
Once this is in motion the EU is notified of the UK’s intention to withdraw.
While EU bureaucrats will want this to kick in immediately to avoid a drawn out period of uncertainty, the PM and certainly Leave campaigners will want this to drag on for a significant period of time to negotiate informally with the other 27 member states.
George Osborne has previously said this could in fact take place within two weeks whereas Vote Leave want this to be delayed so negotiations over the UK’s withdrawal can be given longer to run.
The process could take up to two years to take place with Liam Fox this morning suggesting negotiations might even spill over into 2019.
Economy reacts
The markets are set for a Brexit “bloodbath” this morning when they open at 8am, with sterling at a 30-year low at $1.33.
The markets have reacted with every twist and turn of the referendum and unsurprisingly the pound has plummeted ever since Leave has looked on the cards.
So expect more fireworks today. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is expected to make a statement this morning.
Most economists had predicted a sharp drop in the value of the Pound if the UK voted to Leave, with even Brexiteers admitting there would be a slight “blip” in the event of leaving the EU.
Brexit panic appears to be sweeping across the world markets with Japan shutting down trading briefly today after the share index fell by 1,000 points.
Could further economic woes be in store?
David Cameron’s future
David Cameron will make a statement this morning to clarify his position.
He has previously pledged to stay on, but will he have the fortitude to stick at it and lead negotiations on a position he doesn’t believe in?
Or will he be forced to resign by Brexit-backing Tories? Only time will tell.
Tory big beasts have written a letter to David Cameron pleading with him to stay on, but backbench MPs aren’t quite so forgiving of his tactics during the EU referendum campaign dubbed “Project Fear”.
Around 80 Tory MPs have already come out in support of the PM.
It is unlikely he will be forced out of No10 before negotiations over the UK’s withdrawal are well under way with the leading Leavers demanding a period of “stability” in the event of a Brexit.
What we do know for certain is that the PM is planning on quitting before the 2020 election and a vote to Leave would almost certainly bring his departure date forward.
Negotiating leaving
Leaving the EU is not as simple as pushing a button and it is unclear how the process will pan out – Greenland being the only part of a country to have ever left.
Leaving will have to be negotiated with the other 27 members and the UK’s subsequent relationship with the EU is also on the table, including future trade deals.
This involves rescinding the European Communities Act which allows EU laws to trump the UK’s and also sifting through around 80,000 pages of EU agreements from over five decades to decide which are repealed, amended or retained. Parliament will also want a say in this.
This process could last up to two years, during which EU laws will still apply, Britain carries on paying into EU coffers and UK borders remain open to EU workers.
Some Brexiteers want to stall triggering Article 50 to give the whole process more time – even stretching into 2019.
Single market
Throughout the campaign some Brexiteers have been privately keen to put staying in the single market at the heart of any renegotiations with Brussels.
In a recent interview Boris Johnson said he wanted “access” rather than membership of the single market.
If the UK is able to negotiate such a deal it would be a “Single Market-Lite” model, paying tariffs or taxes in order to trade with the EU.
Britain would also offer to maintain part of its £8.5billion a year contribution to the EU budget.
In return Britain would expect to be able to withdraw from the free movement of people but allow a lesser “free movement of labour” which allows workers from the EU to come to the UK with a firm job offer.
But in a stark warning to Britain, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned the UK would be treated as a “third party” and have no access.
Departure date
Britain will leave the EU after two years from the date Article 50 is triggered, giving the PM time to strike new trade deals.
Any deal has to be agreed by a majority of foreign government ministers on the council of the European Union, then ratified by member states before being agreed by European Parliament (separate to the council) and MPs at Westminster – no wonder it will take up to two years.
Remain campaigners claim if no agreement is struck, the UK will be left to trade with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules which would mean exporters are hit with their uniform import taxes or tariffs.
But Leave campaigners say it is not in the EU’s interests to lose access to the British markets for its member states’ consumer goods and will be keen to strike a deal.
The break-up of the UK?
The shock result has barely had time to sink in, but Nicola Sturgeon is already making noises about a Scottish break-away.
Now it’s clear Scotland almost unanimously voted to Remain and England choosing to Leave, the SNP will say it shows further evidence of a deepening divide between the will of the two nations.
First Minister Ms Sturgeon stated that the Scottish people had made it “clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union”.
She has previously said this could be the “material change” in circumstances to prompt an independence referendum.
Her predecessor Alex Salmond also piled in saying he was “quite certain” Ms Sturgeon would now be calling for a second referendum on Scottish independence.
But pollsters suggest there is little change in the appetite for an independent Scotland since the last referendum. Then again – what do pollsters know?