Analysis
KATE FERGUSON
Why Rishi rolled the dice and called an election in just WEEKS – how day of drama unfolded
No10 was NOT united on the decision for Brits to go to the polls
SO, why has Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suddenly decided to roll the dice and call a summer General Election?
The first thing to point out is that Downing Street was not entirely united on the decision to do so.
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One camp — led by the Tory Party’s chief strategist Isaac Levido — had urged the PM to “go long” and wait until October or November to hold an election.
This would give the Conservatives more time to show the economy is improving and also let the Bank of England cut interest rates, they argued.
This in turn would let banks cut mortgage rates, which are currently crippling family budgets.
Only then would people start to feel financially better off.
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But another team, which is led by the PM’s Political Secretary James Forsyth, have been pushing for a summer election.
Now, it is important to note that James is Rishi’s best mate.
They have known each other since school, are godparents to each other’s children and Rishi was also the best man at James’ wedding.
They are more than just political colleagues.
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James’ camp reckons that Rishi can now finally show he is achieving all five of the priorities he set out soon after he became Prime Minister.
These are halve inflation, get the economy growing, get debt falling, cut NHS waiting lists and pass new laws to stop the migrant boats.
Rishi Sunak announces July 4th general election
On the economy, the PM will point out that growth is up, wages are rising and inflation is down to 2.3 per cent — almost bang on target.
NHS waiting lists also dropped for the fourth month in a row, according to official figures out last month.
And on stopping the boats, Mr Sunak has managed to pass laws enacting his flagship Rwanda deportation plan.
The thinking now is, strike while the iron is hot and you can put five big ticks by your promises.
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden was also in this early election camp.
In the end, the PM’s calculation was this is as good as it gets.
For there is also likely to be some grim news on the way.
The flagship Rwanda policy has passed Parliament and is now law, but hopes the Tories will get a flight full of migrants off the ground this year are fading fast.
Northern Ireland’s High Court ruled that the plan breached human rights laws and therefore should not apply there.
This has paved the way for English courts to also reject it.
Meanwhile, illegal small boat crossings are starting to go up again.
A summer of damaging headlines showing boats arriving at Dover will only feed a sense that No10 does not have a grip.
Yet most in Westminster had stopped taking bets on a snap summer election, assuming the PM would now go long.
Thrown off the scent
Rishi Sunak had faced a concerted plot by a gang of disgruntled Tories to topple him as Prime Minister.
But they called it off a few weeks ago after the local elections, with the now infamous words “We’re off to the pub”.
With the plot dead and no sign of any letters of no-confidence going in, most assumed the PM was safe until winter.
And even Labour had been thrown off the scent.
Speaking on Tuesday night, one senior party source said of rumours of a July election: “We aren’t taking them very seriously — it doesn’t feel likely.”
Last week Sir Keir Starmer delivered his own election pitch when he unveiled his “early steps” pledge card at a big campaign event in Thurrock, Essex.
The rally had originally been intended to be a full-blown manifesto launch.
But with no election on the cards Labour scrambled to rejig the plans.
Party bosses had spent big bucks on the conference centre and did not want it to be money down the drain.
So they decided to use the event to launch the pledge card instead.
It was seen as good practice for Sir Keir to bang the drum for his general election pitch and try out his new no-notes public speaking technique.
But while Labour had put their snap election planning on ice, a small group of senior Tories was secretly planning for a July 4 poll.
The surprise move was a fiercely guarded secret which only a handful of the PM’s most trusted aides and colleagues were aware of.
News leaked out only yesterday morning, when civil servants and other staffers in Downing Street began to work out something was afoot.
One insider said: “They were picking up a vibe change.”
Slap down chat
By 9am yesterday phones were ringing red-hot with fevered speculation that an election announcement was coming.
But Downing Street media aides went to ground, shunning calls and leaving blue-tick WhatsApps unanswered.
Rishi himself refused to slap down the fevered chatter when he was asked about it at Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons by SNP leader Stephen Flynn.
Excited MPs swapped gossip in huddled groups around Parliament.
Five hours later, as the heavens opened, Rishi appeared outside No10 to confirm a snap election on July 4.
The PM, a well-known Yankophile, has chosen American Independence Day for his own judgment day.
Rishi is famously straight-laced.
He doesn’t drink, he has never taken drugs, and he is not a gambler.
But he has staked it all on a July 4 election.
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Will he come up trumps?
Or will he lose it all?
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