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RALLYING TROOPS
Moments tough-talking Rishi won over key voters on immigration & national service revealed in Sun’s exclusive tracker
Top pollster James Johnson urged Downing Street to zero in on last-time Conservative supporters
RISHI Sunak nailed the first TV debate with crucial 2019 voters when talking tough on immigration, pensions and national service, exclusive polling reveals today.
The survey for our Never Mind the Ballots show found the PM won the bout 60 to 33 among the “winnable” Brits who gave Boris Johnson his election landslide five years ago.
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But he was 20 points down across the population as a whole - 53 to 33 - in the telly clash, mirroring his standing in the wider national opinion polls.
In other snap polls taken on the debate, Mr Sunak won one overall and Sir Keir the other.
Our polling shows Mr Sunak’s “aggressive” performance in the first head-to-head hosted by ITV on Tuesday evening appeared to have paid off with his base - as well as the wider public.
Landing blows on tax, borders and supporting pensioners, the PM did well with the crucial coalition of voters he needs to hold together to have any chance of staying in No10.
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Top pollster James Johnson urged Downing Street to zero in on last-time Conservative supporters with bold red meat policies.
A live “worm” tracker from his JL Partners firm - showing viewers’ reaction in real-time - saw Mr Sunak open up clear dividing lines with Labour on key issues.
A thousand voters were tracked as they watched the ITV debate on Tuesday night, with their positive and negative reactions tracked.
Last-time Tory voters gave him the thumbs up on Rwanda, with them rallying as he said: “If I’m elected illegal migrants will be on the planes, with Labour they’ll be on the streets.”
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Whereas those who went with Labour in 2019 hated his border plan, with their worm line sinking dramatically.
Mr Sunak also got a cheer from previous Conservative voters when vowing to protect pensioners from paying income tax in the future.
How the polling worked and why some are different
OUR exclusive poll by JL Partners gave Sir Keir Starmer the win by a margin of 53 to 33, with 13 per cent undecided.
It found a different result to a snap YouGov survey last night that found Mr Sunak sneaked it by 51 to 49.
James Johnson explained that the difference hinged on the questions both pollsters asked.
YouGov explicitly asked people to choose a winner regardless of their political preferences.
Whereas the JL Partners one was a straight poll of 1,000 voters on who they believed won the debate.
Johnson said: “We think that’s better and gets closer to the truth, if people bring their political preferences alongside them.
“We think our question get how much those previous underlying attitudes towards the two leaders have changed because of this debate.”
A furious spat erupted as Sir Keir dismissed accusations he was plotting a “retirement tax” as “nonsense”.
But appearing on Never Mind The Ballots, ex-No10 pollster James Johnson said: “The voters are not convinced by Keir Starmer having to explain some of his policies, and pensioners rally to the Tory base.”
And Mr Sunak’s controversial national service plan also proved a hit with Tories while going down badly with Labour.
There the biggest gap between Labour and Tories opened up with the Tory base lapping up the policy, but its negative reaction amongst 2019 Labour voters - who backed Corbyn - dragged down its popularity with the wider public.
Mr Johnson added: “What we need to remember here is that the Labour 2019 voters are not going to come over to Rishi Sunak.
“They have decided they don't like this policy…Whereas the Conservative 2019 voters like this.
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It is one of the biggest gaps we have between the Conservative and Labour ones. The national service policy seems to work with his base.
“If I were advising the Conservatives, I'd say don't worry about these guys down here (Labour voters). It's got these guys (Tory voters) in positive territory, and that's what matters.”
While Mr Sunak was behind Starmer on being persuasive and competent, again he soared ahead with the 2019 Tory voters he is desperate to keep.
And it appears his feisty attitude at the debate paid off.
JL Partner’s Scarlett told the show: “Aggression can cut both ways, people like the idea of a politician fighting on their behalf, cut through noise and get things done.”
She added: “If Sunak can potentially come across as someone who can be aggressive and put a good plan in action, regardless of what other people say, he might be on to something.”
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The Sun’s Kate Ferguson added that Sir Keir got frustrated, ratty last night.
She said: "You saw his semi eye rolling, his muttering to himself.
"This sense that 'you’re not being fair to me Rishi'... well guess what Keir? Politics isn’t always fair.”
She added: “Sometimes Keir is too much of a lawyer, too forensic, too fixated on minor points. If I had a tip for him I would say step back; roll your sleeves up and just be cleaner with what you are landing and feel free to be aggressive yourself.”
Voters were also split down the middle over whether Nigel Farage should have been included in last night’s head to head.
Some 42 per cent said he should have been there, with the exact same number saying he should not.
Polling experts Scarlett told Never Mind the Ballots Farage was odds on to win Clacton after his shock announcement on Monday that he was returning to the fray as Reform leader.
Sir Keir was lifted into positive territory by both groups when vowing a tax raid on non-doms and private schools.
And his tracker even went up when talking about his background as the son of a toolmaker who struggled to pay the phone bill.
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The gave the Labour leader a clear win across all voters, reflecting the 20-point poll lead he currently commands.
Ms Maguire said however effective the PM’s arguments, it’s “like getting a call from an ex - you just don’t want to hear it.”
Eight key flashpoints from the first major debate
HERE'S eight key flashpoints from the first major debate of the General Election 2024 between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
1) Sir Keir said he would never use private healthcare in any circumstances. Mr Sunak said he would.
2) Keir Starmer gets the first laugh of the night when he tears into PM's claim that “nhs waiting lists are coming down” .
3) The PM cheered by the audience as he berated Sir Keir over how he would resolve NHS strikes.
4) The Prime Minister hints at leaving the European Convention on Human Rights: "If I'm forced to choose between securing our borders and our country's security or a foreign court, I'm going to choose our country's security every single time."
5) Sir Keir's eye roll when Mr Sunak kept interrupting him.
6) Presenter Julie Etchingham forced to intervene when the two men kept shouting over each other: “Please, an appeal from me not to speak over one another.
7) Keir Starmer called Rishi Sunak “the British expert on tax rises”.
8) The PM attacks Starmer for helping hate preacher Abu Qatada fight his deportation in court in 2008.
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