‘No evidence of second wave’ says Oxford professor as he warns Britain ‘can’t afford harsh lockdown’

BRITAIN cannot afford a harsh lockdown because there is no evidence of a second wave, a top professor said today.

Professor Carl Heneghan, director for the centre of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said the UK must “slow down” because we will have a “long winter”.

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He also said there is “no evidence of a second wave” and said now is not the time to introduce restrictive measures.

His comments come as Health Secretary Matt Hancock urged Brits to snitch on their neighbours who flout new rules – before admitting he would report them himself.

Professor Heneghan told Sky News the UK cannot afford to introduce “harsh measures” immediately to curb the spread of coronavirus.

He warned the virus "tends to come back" when you shut everything down and then open it all up again.

The expert urged the country to remain vigilant so that the infections “stay manageable” across the board.

SLOW DOWN

He also said any intervention would be more useful over the festive period.

Professor Heneghan  said: "I'd be looking at the Christmas break right now - to extend it.

"Often when we come back in January, there's a significant rise in deaths - about 5,000 per week more than what we see right now. And that's due to the seasonal effect.

"Therefore, if you're looking at a break and when we need it, you're looking at the mid-winter when we might run into problems.

"It would be more explainable to people why we're doing it then than now."

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He said: “What we have to do now is slow down, this is a long winter.”

 “What we’re seeing is that the virus is operating in a seasonal way.

“As we’ve gone back to schools, actually what’s happened now is we’ve seen about a 60% increase in consultations for all the acute respiratory infections and that’s what’s driving the problems in the Test and Trace programme.

“All the young children who have coughs and colds and these infections, one is called rhinovirus.

“As we look at the data, Covid is operating in a similar seasonal way, and mirroring those respiratory infections, so what we have to do now is slow down, this is a long winter.

There’s no evidence right now of what’s called a second wave."

Professor Carl Heneghan

“We can’t afford to go now with harsh measures - the impact on the economy here is going to be significant.

“What happens is as soon as you pause and then open up again, it tends to come back.

“We still have to be vigilant about ensuring the infections stay manageable across the board.”

He added: “There’s no evidence right now of what’s called a second wave.”

Asked if Prime Minister Boris Johnson was wrong in that assertion, he added: “I get for our ministers this is an incredibly complicated area, some of the issues we’re talking about require five or six years of healthcare experience to really get your head around.

“This is about good advice, to the Prime Minister, to the Health Secretary, that allows a wider range of expertise to come on board, and if they did that they might look at the problem slightly differently.

“I think over the next few weeks if we can see a slower, analytical approach to the data, and a different approach to the advice, the Prime Minister might see a subtle change in his language that reflects a need to normalise what’s going on.

“This is a seasonal effect now, if it becomes worse and it impacts on disease, then, yes, that’s the point when we have restrictive measures, but that time is not now.”

“If he doesn’t tackle it now, it will be out of control with devastating repercussions.”