DO THE MATH
How Arsenal could win Premier League in never-before-seen situation even if they finish level on points with Man City
City and the Gunners could produce the tightest title finish in history
ARSENAL fans should beware of counting their chickens even if Manchester City fail to beat Tottenham tonight.
Because a draw for Pep Guardiola’s side would maintain the distinct possibility of the Premier League title being decided on goal difference or goals scored - and the chance of City snatching it with another “Agueroooooo” moment.
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There is even a bizarre scenario where Arsenal could be crowned champions on the basis of their superior head-to-head record against City.
But goals win games and it’s entirely possible that they could yet be decisive in determining whether the Gunners win the league for the first time in 20 years or City become the first club to do it four seasons in a row.
And Arsenal know it can happen because that is how they pipped Liverpool to the First Division championship in 1989.
Michael Thomas’ famous stoppage-time strike left George Graham’s side level with Kenny Dalglish’s men on 76 points and +37 goal difference, but they nicked the title with 73 goals scored to the Reds’ 65.
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At present Arsenal’s goal difference is +61, three better than City’s. But the reigning champions have scored 91 goals to the Gunners’ 89.
There are a number of ways that the two teams could finish the season on the same number of points.
So long as Guardiola’s men achieve one more point than Mikel Arteta’s in the next few days, the teams will end level.
City could even lose tonight and draw against West Ham on Sunday yet still lift the trophy if Arsenal lost heavily at home to Everton in their final game.
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That feels like an unlikely scenario.
But there is an entirely plausible sequence of events that would leave City as champions on goal difference or goals scored.
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If City draw at Spurs tonight, they would still win the league if they beat West Ham on Sunday and Arsenal failed to win against Everton.
In the event of honours even at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, final-day draws for both teams would send the trophy to the Emirates because of that superior goal difference.
But a massive win for City on Sunday, and a narrow victory for Arsenal, would allow the Manchester side to pip the Gunners at the post by overturning that three-goal gap.
And you really couldn’t rule it out.
West Ham have already conceded 71 goals this season, the fourth most in the Premier League.
City would need to put at least four past David Moyes’s side at the Etihad, but they are in the form to do it. They have scored four or more goals in six of their last seven league games.
Everton, meanwhile, have conceded the fourth fewest goals in the top flight - 49 - with only the top three having a better defensive record.
Arteta’s team will have to be much more incisive and ruthless than they were against Manchester United to breach the Toffees’ defence repeatedly.
Potential scenario
Let’s say City beat West Ham 4-0 and Arsenal overcome Everton 1-0, which is perfectly possible.
In that case, both teams would finish on 89 points and +62 goal difference. But City would win the title because they would have scored 95 goals to Arsenal’s 90.
There are a number of other scoreline combinations that would see City home by the tightest of margins.
And of course City could batter West Ham by more than four goals. If their margin of victory was more than three goals greater than Arsenal’s - say, 5-0 to Arsenal's 1-0 - they would be champions on goal difference rather than goals scored.
The scenario of City winning the league on goals scored would also play out if City thrashed Spurs tonight and then drew against West Ham on Sunday. But only if City’s win over Tottenham was by three more goals than Arsenal’s victory over Everton.
Got all that? Good.
Arsenal fans should certainly be sitting less comfortably if they have done the math.
Never-before-seen
But there is an unprecedented way in which the Gunners could lift the title.
And it would make the gritty draw that Arteta’s side ground out at the Etihad in March look like a real masterstroke.
OK. Let’s say the combination of results allows City to finish with the same goal difference as Arsenal.
But what if Arsenal also managed to finish on the same number of goals scored as City?
It’s not impossible. If City beat West Ham 4-0 and Arsenal won an 11-goal thriller against Everton 6-5, then both teams would end with 89 points, +62 goal difference and 95 goals.
In that case - and in various other permutations involving a crazy goalfest at the Emirates - the title would go down to head-to-head record.
And Arsenal’s 1-0 win at the Emirates back in October, coupled with the goalless draw at City, would make them the first club to win the title on the basis of their performances against their title rivals.
It is a very long shot, of course.
Not nearly as long as the scenario in which City put a hatful past West Ham and the Gunners find Everton a tougher nut to crack.
City have that last-day pedigree. They’ve twice held their nerve to see off Liverpool under Guardiola, in 2018/9 and 2021/2.
And of course, back in 2011/2, that iconic Aguero goal clinched the title on goal difference from neighbours United.
So, picture the scene on Sunday afternoon. It’s all over at the Emirates, Arsenal have beaten Everton 1-0, but they’re still playing at the Etihad.
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It’s deep into stoppage-time, City are leading 3-0 and about to lose their title because of a goal difference inferior by one.
But then Kevin De Bruyne threads a through ball behind a tired West Ham defence, Erling Haaland runs clean through and…how does that nightmare end, Arsenal fans?
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