Golf betting tips and predictions for the BMW Australian PGA Championship and the RSM Classic
The Australian PGA Championship takes centre stage this week with the American stars still taking an extended holiday - and the big challenge seems to be deciding which Aussie will triumph down under.
There has only been one non-Australian winner in the last 25 years - Harold Varner in 2016 - so it is no surprise that the home golfers dominate the market.
Defending champion Min Woo Lee heads the market at 8-1, a point lower than former Open champion Cameron Smith, who is a three time winner of this title.
But Lee’s form has been erratic this year, and Smith missed the cut here at Royal Queensland last year when he was defending. So taking a short price on either of them is a bit risky.
I prefer the chances of Lucas Herbert, who pushed 54 hole leader Smith into a share of second at last week’s New South Wales Open with a storming finish.
Before joining LIV, Herbert won some big events on the DP World Tour, including the Dubai Desert and the Irish Open. At 14-1, he represents the best value in this market.
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Golf tips
Apart from Herbert and Smith, the NSW leaderboard was packed with players from outside the top 1,000 in the world rankings.
Corey Lamb is one of those, but he finished level with Major champion Smith - yet he can be backed at 1,000-1. You will not find many players at four figure odds you can make a decent case for.
Lamb’s performance was another indication that Aussies like playing at home, and another outsider to consider is Jack Buchanan, who was fifth last week. At 200-1, he offers good each way value.
There are plenty of foreigners who have played well enough on the DP World Tour this year to suggest they could follow in Varner’s footsteps.
England’s Jordan Smith is the lowest priced non-Australian at 16-1, a couple of points shorter than Frenchman Viktor Perez.
But I am a fan of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, another of the crop of outstanding young players to emerge from Denmark recently. And a 22-1 quote seems fair.
He won three times on the Challenge Tour this year to earn automatic promotion to the DP World Tour and quickly clocked up three top tens, including a share of fourth at the hotly-contested Dunhill Links. That is solid form.
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The RSM Classic in Georgia brings down the curtain on the PGA Tour’s official 2024 schedule, a 47 event stretch which has often resembled a never-ending saga.
Like pretty much every event since the FedEx Cup play-offs finished, the RSM has struggled to attract the star names. Instead of heading to Sea Island they are probably relaxing on more exotic beaches.
The exception is world No 5 Ludvig Aberg - although he would probably have sat this one out too if he had not been obliged to defend the title he won in spectacular fashion last year, shooting 61-61 at the weekend.
Aberg is a best priced 11-1, and normally that would be tempting - but not so much for a golfer who has not played since the Tour Championship in August, and who underwent knee surgery soon after that event.
Aberg’s pair of 61s were not the lowest scores recorded at Sea Island last year. Mackenzie Hughes shot a third round 60 and ended up four shots adrift of the winner, but three clear of the rest.
Hughes is a former winner here, and last year’s effort was his second runner-up finish. His recent form has not been great, but his course record means the 33-1 quote still looks inviting.
Fellow Canadian Adam Svensson finished in a share of fifth 12 months ago, and has played well enough this year to make odds of around 50-1 look a decent each way proposition.
Justin Lower looked like doing us a 25-1 favour last week when he led after 18 and 36 holes, and was just a shot back after 54.
He slipped back into share of fifth, but still rewarded each way backers. So it may be worth a small reinvestment at 45-1.
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