England face possible Euro 2020 Group of Death against France and Portugal – despite sealing top seeding place
ENGLAND could STILL face a Euro 2020 group nightmare - despite sealing a top seeding place.
And that could see Gareth Southgate’s men facing World Cup winners France AND defending European champions Portugal.
The prospect of the ultimate “Group of Death” scenario has come a step closer with just two days of qualifiers left this week.
Uefa’s bizarre and complicated regulations for the tournament sees seeding slots for the 24 teams that are eventually decided by performances in the qualifying campaign.
The ten group winners will take the first ten positions, followed by the ten runners up, all ranked by points, goal difference and goals scored.
Then the last four positions will be taken by the winners of March’s Nations League play-off mini-tournaments, which could yet involve all the other four Home Nations.
But with only six groups, only the top six ranked sides can be in that seeding bracket.
England, Belgium, Italy and Ukraine are guaranteed to be in the top six.
But France, currently fifth, will be overtaken if Spain beat already qualified Sweden tonight and Germany manage at least a draw against Northern Ireland tomorrow.
That would drop the French into Pot Two, which is certain to also include Croatia, Poland and Russia.
Denmark will also be in that pot if they avoid defeat in Dublin tonight with Portugal, who stand 12th in the rankings after completing their group games, set to be overtaken by a Holland win over bottom-placed Estonia.
That would confirm Cristiano Ronaldo and Co in the third Pot.
Another huge complicating factor is the 12 nations hosting games, which have already been “paired” in specific groups.
The only co-host that can be in England’s group is Scotland, if they win their Nations League play-off.
But it also means that England’s other potential group opponents when the draw is made in Bucharest on November 30 are likely to be one from France, Poland and Croatia out of Pot Two, with Denmark, Russia and Holland all host nations.
And potential Pot Three opponents are Portugal, Turkey, Austria, Czech Republic, Switzerland - who will surely beat minnows Gibraltar - and Finland, if they get a point in Greece and Sweden lose in Spain.
England are certain to get a Nations League winner as the fourth side, which will be confirmed as the victorious side from Scotland’s showdown if neither Hungary nor Romania are drawn into that quartet alongside the Scots, Norway and Serbia.
But there is plenty that is not set in stone and wins for the Republic over Denmark and Wales against Hungary in their winner takes all showdowns would change things substantially.
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An Irish win, dropping Denmark into the play-offs, would promote Portugal into Pot Two irrespective of Holland’s result, still a possible opponent but not as well as the French.
The Irish would then be likely to jump into Pot Three unless both Sweden and Finland win.
Wales could also sneak into the third pot but are more likely to be in the bottom seeds, although after their feats in Euro 2016 that would hold no fears for Gareth Bale and Co.